FRO Frontline Ltd

$FRO Of the ~160 sanctioned big tankers, a US licence can only reach about 80. Iran’s state fleet (38 ships) is out. Another 30 to 50 are also sanctioned by the EU or UK, and a US licence does nothing for those, because the insurers that matter are all in London, Europe and Norway and must obey EU/UK rules. Of the ~80 a US licence could reach, only about 11 are under the 20-year age cap the Gulf terminals use. About 50 to 60 of the sanctioned ships are currently idle or sitting full of Iranian oil under the US blockade; those are the ones a licence would free. No customer, no Gulf oil company, no trader has said it would take such a ship, and there isn’t a single 2026 example of a sanctioned ship carrying a normal cargo. LOAD UP!!

$FRO These monsters closing in on 1000% Should’ve held a runner What a move. Thanks Hormuz

$FRO the shadow fleet news is bearish but it’s only a short term and won’t effect rates that much.

Since September 28 after Trump rejecting the cease fire proposal, the Strait of Hormuz has seen a rapid escalation of tanker attacks by roughly 1.5 per day. At least 12 tanker vessels have been confirmed hit. Yesterday, October 4: 2 tankers were reported struck. And today, UKMTO has reported another tanker hit, with a fire in the engine room. This is becoming a major risk for oil transportation, tanker rates and war-risk insurance. Watchlist: $FRO $STNG $BWET $TNK $INSW. Source: UKMTO

Very strong finish for the week in $FRO after a big failed breakdown last week. I'm holding over the weekend. Give me $60's.

$FRO Four days since the last check and the tanker market has only gotten louder. The Baltic dirty tanker index hit 7,444 on Tuesday, the highest reading in Bloomberg's data going back to 2010. VLCC fixtures from the Gulf of Oman to Asia are printing 1.01 and 1.16 million dollars a day. Bloomberg Intelligence put the VLCC benchmark at a record 907,635 a day on Oct 6. Security is tightening, not easing. Saudi media reports Houthi mining in Bab el-Mandeb, Iran says it struck an LPG tanker in Hormuz, and UKMTO is logging roughly one reported attack a day since Oct 2. Veson Nautical's Q4 outlook this week doesn't expect a real return to Suez transits before 2028.

Two more tanker attacks in the Gulf in just 48 hours. This is a total of 14 since Trump rejected ceasefire back in September. These past 2 attackers are more serious than the last few. Oct. 6: Panama-flagged tanker On Peace was struck by a projectile near the Strait of Hormuz. 12 of 19 crew were injured, including 11 Indian nationals. The vessel caught fire and injured crew were evacuated to Oman. (MarketScreener) Oct. 7: Another tanker, north of Qatar, reported being hit by multiple projectiles. Casualties have been reported, but the number has not yet been released. Authorities are investigating. (Anadolu Ajansı) This adds to a rapidly escalating shipping-risk environment. Watch: $FRO $STNG $DHT $TNK $BWET Higher tanker rates, war-risk insurance, rerouting, slower exports and potentially higher oil prices could follow if attacks continue. Sources: Reuters, UKMTO

$FRO $DHT The tanker revenue and spot rate outlook for the next 12 months points to record highs in the near term driven by severe supply tightness and geopolitical disruptions, followed by downward normalization pressure starting in 2027 as massive new vessel deliveries outpace demand. Near-Term Outlook • Skyrocketing Rates: Benchmark rates for Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) reached historic peaks exceeding $900,000 to over $1 million per day in October 2026, while product tanker earnings hit record levels (e.g., LR2 earnings around $238,000 per day and LR1s at $137,000 per day). • Tightened Supply & Geopolitics: Tonnages remain restricted due to longer trade routes, regional conflicts in the Middle East affecting the Strait of Hormuz, and tankers being pulled into alternative or dirty trades. • Short-Term Profitability: Companies like Frontline to continue to post record-shattering net incomes and cash piles as emergency pricing and high risk premiums grows.

$FRO $DHT Iran’s Fleet of Shadow Tankers Has Run Out of Oil After Monthslong U.S. Blockade Tehran had millions of barrels of crude in tankers in Asian waters that gave it a steady flow of cash. Now, that oil has dried up.For most of the war, Iran had an invaluable cushion: dozens of oil tankers holding millions of barrels of crude sitting safely in waters in Asia. Tehran steadily sold the oil to China, bringing in billions of much-needed cash. Now, that floating storage is gone. By mid-October, the reserves were fully depleted. More oil from far away. Longer trips more cost and more tanker revenue. 2027 will be another great year!

$FRO Situation in hormuz doesn’t seem to get any better in the nearest future, loading up some more during this mini dip

$FRO $DHT Its now not about how much higher tanker rates can go-but how long they”ll stay elevated. A direct US military attack on Iran would severely escalate the conflict, stretching elevated tanker rates for months or even years. While President Trump recently ruled out an immediate pre-election strike, any future direct offensive would trigger compounding maritime risks that. A further conflict risks irreversible damage to major regional oil terminals, refining hubs, and loading docks. Then even after ceasefires or successful military interventions, restoring legal compliance, marine insurance confidence, and structural fleet rotations takes massive amounts of time. If no offensive how long will peace take .Could 2027 be another tanker banner year? Are analysts now re-thinking their “return to normal rates” and “impact of new tonnage” to drive them down? .

Since September 28 after Trump rejected the cease fire, UKMTO has logged 16 attacks on merchant ships in the Gulf, counting strikes, attempted attacks, injuries, harassments, and unfortunate casualties. That’s more than 1 attack a day. The pace hasn't slowed at all. On Oct 7, a tanker was hit by multiple projectiles about 51 nautical miles off Qatar. On Oct 8, another was struck and set on fire east of Fujairah, the FIRST HIT THERE in six months. Latest: today, Oct 9, Iran's Revolutionary Guards said they struck an LPG carrier south of the Strait of Hormuz. They warned that ships using routes Tehran doesn't approve could be targeted across the wider region. That strike isn't in the 16 count yet (likely 17 official count soon)! Note: attacks on shipping tankers, injures and casualties will drastically increase rates. Watch out for the below tickers. Source: Windward Daily Intelligence, Reuters, UKMTO $FRO $TNK $LPG $BWET $USO

Frontline is an $11.5B company now, after a 131% run over 12 months. Right now it's an 18 on the Quality Score, Excellent, #41 of 3,283. $FRO

$FRO The war premium is not sitting in the barrel. It is sitting in the boat. Saudi Aramco just cut its November selling price to Asia to the widest discount since June 2020, per Reuters. Arab Light at a 5 per barrel discount to the Oman/Dubai average, down 3 from October, when a Reuters survey had expected a price hike. The reason is the freight bill. A VLCC from the Gulf to China now charters around 1.2 million per day, per LSEG data, versus about 80 thousand a year ago. Freight now adds roughly 33 per barrel to the delivered cost, per Poten and Partners, up from 1.73 in January. The barrels are still moving. Middle East crude exports have run back to around pre-war levels in recent weeks, per Reuters, as ship-to-ship operations near capacity limits, per Kpler. What is not moving cheaply is the ship. Frontline, the largest listed pure-play crude tanker owner, reported a record 659 million net profit for Q2. That quarter's VLCC rates were a fraction of where fixtures sit now.