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SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust

Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. operates a telehealth consultation platform. It connects consumers to healthcare professionals, enabling them to access medical care for mental health, sexual health, dermatology and primary care. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.

Hims & Hers Health Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Hims & Hers Health Inc

Hims & Hers Health is surging on reports of a groundbreaking partnership with Novo Nordisk to sell obesity drugs, ending a prior feud. This unexpected alliance, announced late Friday, has fueled immense speculation about a massive short squeeze, leaving a highly shorted float vulnerable and sparking widespread bullish sentiment.

Webull Corp. engages in the provision of financial services. It offers trading, wealth management product distribution, market data and information, user community, and investor education. The company was founded by An Quan Wang in 2016 and is headquartered in St. Petersburg, FL.

Webull Corp. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Webull Corp

Webull (BULL) is trending after reporting strong Q4 and full-year revenue and customer asset growth, despite an EPS miss attributed to increased growth investments. Community sentiment is deeply divided, with many citing deep undervaluation and significant institutional buying, while others criticize management for sustained price declines and concerns over dilution.

SHP ETF Trust - FIS Biblically Responsible Risk Managed ETF

The $PRAY ETF is trending as widespread community discussion centers on the intersection of faith, biblical principles, and financial decision-making, directly reflecting its "Biblically Responsible" investment strategy. Users are engaging in conversations about ethical investing, seeking divine guidance in wealth management, and debating the morality of various market practices.

Rich Sparkle Holdings Ltd. engages in the provision of financial printing and corporate services. The firm offers typesetting, proofreading, translation, design, and printing of listing documents, financial reports, fund documents, circulars, and announcements. It also delivers advisory services, such as conducting internal control assessment and environmental, social and governance performance evaluation, and other services including provision of co-working space. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Hong Kong.

Rich Sparkle Holdings Ltd.

Rich Sparkle Holdings Limited

Rich Sparkle Holdings (ANPA) is seeing significant action after its acquisition of TikTok icon Khaby Lame's core company, sparking intense speculative interest due to its low float and high insider ownership, as traders weigh massive short squeeze potential against sharp warnings of a pump-and-dump.

Zevra Therapeutics, Inc. is a commercial-stage rare disease company that combines science, data and patient needs to create therapies for diseases with limited or no treatment options. The firm focuses on the treatment of rare neurological and sleep conditions such as certain Urea Cycle Disorders, Niemann Pick Disease Type C and Idiopathic Hypersomnia. The company receives royalties for AZSTARYS from its commercial partner Corium. The company was founded by Christal M. M. Mickle and Travis C. Mickle on October 30, 2006 and is headquartered in Celebration, FL.

Zevra Therapeutics Inc

Zevra Therapeutics is trending as the community debates the immediate impact of its new CFO hire and strong Miplyffa sales ahead of anticipated Q4 earnings and crucial EMA approval, all while navigating a complex lawsuit and persistent M&A speculation. Investors are closely watching if these catalysts can finally translate into sustained shareholder value for the rare disease focused biotech.

uniQure NV engages in the discovery, development, and commercialization of innovative gene therapies. Its discoveries intend to treat hemophilia, Huntington's disease, glybera, and cardiovascular problems. The company was founded by Sander J. van Deventer in 1998 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, Netherlands.

uniQure N.V.

uniQure NV

uniQure is trending significantly as the community anticipates a more favorable regulatory environment for its gene therapies following Dr. Vinay Prasad's upcoming departure from the FDA, sparking widespread discussion about a potential 'softball' path forward for its Huntington's disease treatment and fueling speculation of a short squeeze.

SELLAS Life Sciences Group, Inc. is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company, which engages in the development and commercialization of immunotherapeutic for cancer indications. Its product pipeline includes galinpepimut-S. The company was founded by Angelos M. Stergiou on April 3, 2006 and is headquartered in New York, NY.

SELLAS Life Sciences Group Inc

SELLAS Life Sciences is buzzing as the CEO's recent discussion of 'curative outcomes' for its AML therapies drives community speculation of groundbreaking REGAL trial data and a potential buyout, intensified by an ongoing AML conference and growing short squeeze chatter.

United Airlines Holdings, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of transportation services. It operates through the following geographical segments: Domestic, Atlantic, Pacific, and Latin America. The company was founded on December 30, 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, IL.

United Airlines Holdings Inc

United Airlines is trending as its CEO warns of a significant Q1 earnings impact from surging jet fuel prices, a direct result of Middle East geopolitical tensions. Despite strong passenger demand, the community is divided between those fearing further declines due to fuel costs and others buying the dip, anticipating a rebound.

Permian Resources Holdings, Inc. engages in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas. It also focuses on driving sustainable returns through the responsible acquisition, optimization, and development of crude oil. The company was founded on October 6, 2014 and is headquartered in Midland, TX.

Permian Resources Holdings Inc. - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Permian Resources Corp - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Permian Resources is trending as crude oil prices remain elevated above $90 due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, prompting community discussion about the stock's perceived undervaluation. Investors are also actively weighing potential M&A, either with PR acquiring new assets or becoming a takeover target itself, further fueled by its strong operational performance.

Gorilla Technology Group, Inc. engages in the provision of video intelligence, Internet of Things (IoT) security, edge AI data analytics, and operational technology security solutions and services in Asia Pacific. It operates through the following segments: Video IoT, Security Convergence, and Other. The company was founded by Spincer Koh in May 2001 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Gorilla Technology Group Inc

Gorilla Technology Group is trending following robust full-year earnings that showcased record revenue, improved profitability, and a substantial AI infrastructure pipeline, sparking community discussions about its perceived undervaluation and market dynamics amidst a challenging small-cap environment.

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<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Senator Jeff Merkley stated that he first became concerned about prediction markets after a bettor on Polymarket won more than $400,000 by accurately predicting that the U.S. would remove Maduro.</li><li>He added that it was “extraordinarily likely” that somebody in the group of people who knew about the U.S. action leaked the information to a bettor on the prediction platform.</li><li>A New York Times analysis found more than 150 Polymarket accounts placed bets of over $1,000 predicting last Saturday’s U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran a day early.</li></ul>Democratic lawmakers&nbsp;led by Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar are reportedly set to introduce a bill banning the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from placing bets on prediction markets.According to a CNBC&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/05/prediction-markets-merkley-ban-iran.html">report</a>, the bill also seeks to ban senior executive branch officials from prediction markets, with fines starting at $10,000 for those found in violation of the rules.The bill comes at a time when major international events, such as the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war, have seen bets placed on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.“Members receive all sorts of tips and advice. The actual demonstration of insider trading is too difficult to be sufficient to address the problem. The problem becomes both real corruption … and the appearance of corruption and conflict of interest,” Merkley said during the interview.<h2 class="st-heading-2">The Venezuela Bet That Made Merkley Suspicious</h2>Merkley stated that he first became concerned about prediction markets after a bettor on Polymarket won more than $400,000 by accurately predicting that the U.S. would remove Maduro.“That was a case where you had the secretary of state saying ‘we didn’t notify Congress the way we’re supposed to under the law because we were too concerned about a leak,’” Merkley said during the interview.He added that it was “extraordinarily likely” that somebody in the group of people who knew about the U.S. action leaked the information to a bettor on the prediction platform.“This legislation strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors and provides rules of the road to prevent those with confidential government or policy information from exploiting their access for financial gain,” Sen. Klobuchar said in a statement to CNBC.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Soaring Popularity Of Prediction Markets</h2>According to an&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/03/upshot/prediction-markets-iran-strikes.html">analysis</a> by The New York Times, a day before the joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran Saturday last week, more than 150 accounts placed bets of at least $1,000 on Polymarket, accurately predicting attacks on the Middle Eastern country.The analysis also showed that at least 16 accounts profited by more than $100,000 each, while at least 109 accounts made more than $10,000.One user reportedly took home nearly half a million dollars after placing bets worth over $60,000.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Israeli Army Reservists Arrested Over Suspicion Of Using Classified Information</h2>Earlier in February, the Israeli authorities arrested several army reservists and a civilian over suspicion of using classified information to place bets on an online prediction platform.Israeli authorities said that the charges came after an investigation into suspected gambling “based on classified information to which the reservists were exposed by virtue of their role in the army,” according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/world/middleeast/israel-army-reservists-classified-information-bets.html">report</a> by The New York Times.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Thursday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.43%; the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) fell 0.56%; and the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.72%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits regarding the S&amp;P 500 ETF was in the ‘neutral’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/berkshire-hathaway-ceo-greg-abel-purchases-15-million-stock/cZdQtjDRI34">Berkshire Hathaway CEO Greg Abel Loads Up On $15M In Stock, BRK Resumes Share Buybacks</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Sen. Jeff Merkley, D-Ore., speaks during the Senate Democrats' news conference in the U.S. Capitol

Democrat Lawmakers Move To Ban Government Officials From Prediction Markets After Iran, Maduro Bets: Report

The bill comes at a time when major international events, such as the ouster of former Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and the Iran war, have drawn bets on prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket.

Equity

Stocktwits, the leading social platform for investors and traders, is excited to announce the highly anticipated 2026 Cashtag Awards Presented by Polymarket.Polymarket, the world’s largest&nbsp;prediction market platform, enables users to trade on real-world event outcomes and tap into crowd-sourced probabilities.&nbsp;The 2026 Awards will be hosted on May 4 at the New York Stock Exchange, and will celebrate the individuals, products, and platforms shaping the future of digital finance and trading.“The Cashtag Awards are about the people building where finance and information intersect,” said Shayne Coplan, Founder and CEO of Polymarket. “We’re excited to partner with Stocktwits to recognize the creators, innovators, and entrepreneurs who are making markets faster, more transparent, and more reflective of what people actually believe.”Award winners will be selected by the passionate Stocktwits community of more than 10 million registered users, with a panel of industry leaders serving as tiebreakers. Voting will open in March and run through April. Winners will be recognized during a ceremony at the 2026 Cashtag Awards Presented by Polymarket at the New York Stock Exchange in New York City, featuring entertainment from acclaimed comedian Nathan Macintosh. The event will celebrate excellence across financial content, market analysis, and retail investing, underscoring Stocktwits’ role as the premier platform for real-time market conversations.The 2026 Cashtag Awards are supported by:●&nbsp; <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.zenatech.com/">ZenaTech</a>, a technology company combining AI-autonomous drones, Drone as a Service (DaaS), quantum computing, and enterprise SaaS solutions to support mission-critical operations in defense, government, and commercial markets.●&nbsp; <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tradier.com/">Tradier</a>, a cloud-based brokerage and API provider enabling stocks, options, and futures trading through flexible technology designed for active traders, developers, and modern fintech platforms.●&nbsp; <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://voyagertechnologies.com/">Voyager</a>, a defense and space technology company committed to advancing and delivering transformative, mission-critical solutions. Voyager aims to unlock new frontiers for human progress, fortify national security, and protect critical assets from ground to space.●&nbsp; <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.tradretfs.com/">TradrETFs</a>, the pioneer of single-stock ETFs in the U.S., with over $2.5 billion of assets under management. Tradr ETFs is currently the fastest-growing provider in the category. Tradr’s leveraged strategies empower investors to access amplified exposure to individual stocks and ETFs in a transparent, exchange-traded structure.●&nbsp; <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://fintech.tv/">FintechTV</a>, a first-of-its-kind global media platform bringing the latest news and perspectives in finance, blockchain, AI, and sustainability investing. FINTECH.TV and <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://tv.nyse.com/taking-stock-2">TakingStock</a> broadcast from its marquee studio on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.“NYSE is a storytelling powerhouse, and the Cashtag Awards are a perfect match for that energy,” said Joe Benarroch, Head of Media Partnerships, Content and Distribution at the NYSE. “We’re excited to team up with Stocktwits and Polymarket to celebrate the creators and communities redefining how millions follow, shape, and engage with the markets.”“What makes the Cashtag Awards special is that they’re powered by the voice of the community,” said Howard Lindzon, Founder and CEO of Stocktwits. “We’re excited to recognize the people and platforms pushing digital finance forward and to bring that celebration to the iconic stage of the New York Stock Exchange with Polymarket.”&nbsp;The award categories for the 2026 Cashtag Awards include:●&nbsp; Cashtag of the Year●&nbsp; Best New ETF●&nbsp; Crypto Creator of the Year●&nbsp; Financial Creator of the Year●&nbsp; Trade of the Year●&nbsp; Story Stock of the Year●&nbsp; Stocktwits Community Member Of The Year●&nbsp; Cashtag Legend Award●&nbsp; Best Retail IR Team●&nbsp; Best Market InnovationFor more information about the 2026 Cashtag Awards and to purchase tickets, please visit <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://cashtag.stocktwits.com/">https://cashtag.stocktwits.com/</a>.About Stocktwits <a href="https://stocktwits.com/">Stocktwits</a> is the premier social media platform dedicated to investors and traders. With an active community of over 10 million users, Stocktwits has established itself as a leading voice in the investing world. Driven by the mission to help investors enhance their returns, Stocktwits offers a rich ecosystem of community interaction, data, content, and tools that empower investors to connect, learn, and have fun in the process. For more information, visit <a href="http://stocktwits.com/">stocktwits.com</a>.About Polymarket<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://polymarket.com/">Polymarket</a> is the world’s largest prediction market where traders forecast the outcomes of future events and win when they are right. By responding instantly to breaking news and new information, market prices provide a real-time signal of how likely events are to occur. Media outlets, institutions, and individual users look to these forecasts for insight into developing stories and what may lie ahead. From politics and global events to business and pop culture, billions of dollars in predictions have been placed on the platform to date.About New York Stock Exchange<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nyse.com/index">The New York Stock Exchange</a>, part of Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE: ICE), a leading global provider of technology and data, is&nbsp; where icons and disruptors come to build on their success and shape the future. The NYSE is the world’s largest and most trusted equities exchange, the leading ETF exchange and the world’s most deterministic trading technology. The NYSE is capitalism at its best, the belief that free and fair markets offer every individual the chance to benefit from success.About Intercontinental Exchange<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.ice.com/">Intercontinental Exchange, Inc.</a> (NYSE: ICE) is a Fortune 500 company that designs, builds, and operates digital networks that connect people to opportunity. We provide financial technology and data services across major asset classes helping our customers access mission-critical workflow tools that increase transparency and efficiency. ICE’s futures, equity, and options <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.theice.com/about/exchanges-clearing">exchanges</a> -- including the <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.nyse.com/">New York Stock Exchange</a> -- and <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.theice.com/solutions/clearing">clearing houses</a> help people invest, raise capital and manage risk. We offer some of the world’s largest markets to trade and clear energy and environmental products. Our fixed income, <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.theice.com/about/fixed-income-data">data services</a> and execution capabilities provide information, analytics and platforms that help our customers streamline processes and capitalize on opportunities. At <a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.theice.com/about/mortgage-technology">ICE Mortgage Technology</a>, we are transforming U.S. housing finance, from initial consumer engagement through loan production, closing, registration and the long-term servicing relationship. Together, ICE transforms, streamlines, and automates industries to connect our customers to opportunity.Contact:Erin Courtneyecourtney@stocktwits.com

The Stocktwits Cashtag Awards Presented by Polymarket: Live at The New York Stock Exchange on May 4th, 2026

Stocktwits Announces 2026 Cashtag Awards Presented by Polymarket, Hosted At The New York Stock Exchange

The Cashtag Awards celebrate the people and products shaping the future of trading and investing.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Paramount’s new bid comes after Warner Bros. received a seven-day waiver from Netflix last week to re-engage with the David Ellison-led company.</li><li>WBD announced on Tuesday that Paramount had sent a revised bid, while its board of directors reaffirmed its support for the Netflix offer.</li><li>Subsequently, WBD stated that Paramount raised its takeover offer to $31 per share, up from $30.</li></ul>The ongoing battle between Paramount Skydance Corp. (PSKY) and Netflix Inc. (NFLX) for acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (WBD) is intensifying, but bettors on prediction markets are clearly leaning toward one entertainment giant to win.The latest prediction market odds for the winner of the WBD acquisition saga follow Paramount's $ 31-per-share takeover offer, up from $30 per share.Paramount’s new bid comes after Warner Bros. received a seven-day waiver from Netflix last week to re-engage with the David Ellison-led company. WBD announced on Tuesday that Paramount had&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/wbd-confirms-receipt-of-paramounts-revised-bid-board-favors-netflix/cZRvyleR4CJ">sent a revised bid</a>, while its board of directors reaffirmed its support for the Netflix offer.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WBD">Warner Bros. Discovery shares</a> were up 0.5% in Thursday’s pre-market trade, while&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WBD">Paramount Skydance shares</a> rose 1%. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the WBD trended in the ‘bullish’ territory, while users felt ‘extremely bullish’ about PSKY.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/NFLX">Netflix shares</a> were up 2% at the time of writing, with retail sentiment trending in the ‘bullish’ territory on Stocktwits.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Prediction Markets Indicating?</h2>Popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show bettors are leaning toward Paramount as the winner in its battle with Netflix for WBD.At the time of writing, the odds of Paramount acquiring WBD before July 2027 stood at 56%, while only 36% believed Netflix could win.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_WBD_jpg_78228dbe59.webp" alt="Kalshi prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition" width="898" height="454"><figcaption>Kalshi prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition | Kalshi</figcaption></figure>Users on Polymarket were less optimistic about Paramount’s chances, with only 46% believing it would win before June 2027, while 37% of the bets were in favor of Netflix.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Polymarket_WBD_jpg_dc5d29605c.webp" alt="Polymarket prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition" width="955" height="437"><figcaption>Polymarket prediction market bets on Warner Bros acquisition | Polymarket</figcaption></figure>The total bets on the two platforms stood at about $2.2 million at the time of writing.<h2 class="st-heading-2">WBD Says Paramount Offer ‘Reasonably Be Expected’ To Be Superior</h2>In an update on Tuesday, WBD announced that Paramount’s offer for the company could “reasonably be expected” to be superior to the one from Netflix.Paramount also reaffirmed that it will pay the $2.8 billion termination fee, which WBD would be required to pay to Netflix to terminate its existing merger agreement.Netflix’s offer assigns an enterprise value of $82.7 billion to WBD but excludes the spinoff company.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/WBD">WBD stock</a> is up 0.3% year-to-date, while&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/PSKY">PSKY stock</a> is down 24%, and NFLX stock is down 12%.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/anthropic-claude-enterprise-ai-tools-software-cybersecurity-hr-investment-banking/cZRyaCIRIGk">Anthropic Expands Enterprise AI Arsenal With Autonomous Tools Ahead Of Widely Expected IPO</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration a man holds a iPhone, that shows Netflix, Warner Bros and Paramount streaming apps on his phone screen

Who Will Acquire Warner Bros, Paramount Or Netflix? Prediction Markets Think This Company May Win The Battle

The latest prediction market odds for the winner of the WBD acquisition saga come after Paramount raised its takeover offer to $31 per share, up from $30 per share.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>According to a Bloomberg report, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday that 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the maximum amount of time he would give for negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran.</li><li>Despite the burgeoning U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, bettors on Polymarket think that the odds of a strike on Iran over the next month are 50:50 at most.</li><li>During an address at a Board of Peace event on Thursday, President Trump said that the next 10 days will show whether the U.S.-Iran tussle escalates or a deal is struck.</li></ul>Prediction markets are buzzing with activity over the prospect of a U.S. strike on Iran after President Donald Trump&nbsp;gave the Middle Eastern country 10 to 15 days to strike a nuclear deal.According to a Bloomberg&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-19/pentagon-amasses-mideast-force-as-trump-threatens-iran-on-talks?srnd=homepage-americas">report</a>, President Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on Thursday that 10 to 15 days was “pretty much” the maximum amount of time he would give for negotiations for a nuclear deal with Iran.“We’re either going to get a deal, or it’s going to be unfortunate for them,” he added.Amid this, the U.S. military has deployed a vast array of forces in the Middle East, comprising fighter jets, refueling tankers, and two aircraft carriers, according to the report.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Prediction Markets Indicating?</h2>Despite the burgeoning U.S. military buildup in the Middle East, bettors on Polymarket think that the odds of a strike on Iran over the next month are 50:50 at most.At the time of writing, the odds of a strike on Iran between February 20 and March 7 were in the range of 2% to 42%. March 15 is the first time these odds reach 50%. Thereafter, the odds continue to climb, reaching 76% by the end of the year.Bettors on Kalshi are pessimistic about the U.S. and Iran striking a nuclear deal, which would avert a strike.The odds of a deal being struck before April plummeted 39 percentage points over the past 24 hours, falling to 27%. The chances of a deal before August 2026 are even lower, at just 16%. Bettors are slightly more optimistic that the deal will be reached before 2027, at 48%.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_Iran_jpg_9fb2274a96.webp" alt="Kalshi prediction market bets on U.S.-Iran nuclear deal on Feb. 20" width="897" height="451"><figcaption>Kalshi prediction market bets on U.S.-Iran nuclear deal on Feb. 20 | Kalshi</figcaption></figure>The total betting volumes on Polymarket regarding a U.S. strike on Iran stood at a staggering $323 million, while Kalshi users placed bets worth $189,000 about the odds of a nuclear deal.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Trump’s Warning To Iran</h2>During an address at a Board of Peace event on Thursday, President Trump said that the <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-will-find-out-next-10-days-iran-step-futher-or-nuclear-deal/cZRkRUKR4Dd">next 10 days</a> will show whether the U.S.-Iran tussle escalates or a deal is struck.“Now we may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You're going to be finding out over the next probably 10 days,” he said.Rafael Mariano Grossi, Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/iaea-chief-warns-iran-not-much-time-left-as-trump-warns-of-consequences/cZRjHiQR4wt">warned</a> on Thursday that the window for Iran to strike a nuclear deal is at risk of closing.“There is not much time, but we are working on something concrete. There are a couple of solutions the IAEA has proposed,” Grossi said.Meanwhile, U.S. equities were mixed in Friday’s pre-market trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, edged lower by 0.01%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) rose 0.03%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.07%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/TLT">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (TLT) was up by 0.17% at the time of writing, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) rose 0.02%.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-will-find-out-next-10-days-iran-step-futher-or-nuclear-deal/cZRkRUKR4Dd">US-Iran Tensions: Trump Says Next 10 Days Will Show Whether United States Takes It A 'Step Further' Or Makes A Deal</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

U.S. President Donald Trump, pictured in the Oval Office, on September 25, 2025. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Will US Strike Iran Anytime Soon Given Trump's 10-Day Window For More Clarity? Here's What Bettors Think Amid The Military Build-Up In Middle East

The U.S. military has reportedly deployed a vast array of forces in the Middle East, comprising fighter jets, refueling tankers, and two aircraft carriers.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal, Michael Selig stated that event contracts qualify as “swaps” under the Commodity Exchange Act and are subject to federal oversight.</li><li>According to him, there are currently nearly 50 state cases arguing that event contracts constitute gambling and fall under state law.</li><li>Selig said the agency will defend federally registered exchanges, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase, against such state-level litigation.</li></ul>Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Chair Michael Selig said the agency will “no longer sit idly by” while state governments pursue litigation against federally registered exchanges, including Polymarket, Kalshi, and Coinbase (COIN).The CFTC is starting out with a “friend-of-the-court” filing on Tuesday in support of Crypto.com in the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals, according to an opinion piece&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.wsj.com/opinion/states-encroach-on-prediction-markets-6eb43af9">written</a> for The Wall Street Journal.“The most common allegation is that these contracts are a form of gambling and therefore subject to state laws,” Selig wrote, noting that nearly 50 state-level cases are currently pending against CFTC-registered exchanges.&nbsp;<blockquote>“The CFTC will no longer sit idly by while overzealous state governments undermine the agency’s exclusive jurisdiction over these markets by seeking to establish statewide prohibitions on these exciting products.”&nbsp;Michael Selig, Chairman, Commodity Futures Trading Commission&nbsp;</blockquote><h2 class="st-heading-2">The Legal Battle Over Prediction Markets</h2>Selig maintained that event contracts serve legitimate economic purposes. According to him, they allow businesses and individuals to hedge risks tied to specific developments, help investors manage exposure, and generate market-based signals about future outcomes.“Farmers can manage risk related to temperature changes that may affect crops, and small-business owners can hedge against tax increases or energy-price spikes, to name two examples,” he wrote.He added that exchanges like Coinbase aren’t the “Wild West,” but self-regulatory organizations that are examined and supervised by experienced CFTC staff. Under the Commodity Exchange Act, Selig argued, event contracts qualify as “swaps.”&nbsp;Selig noted that futures, swaps, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were once new products, but Congress granted the CFTC broad authority to oversee derivatives markets. Just because something is new doesn’t mean courts can reinterpret the law, he wrote.&nbsp;<h2 class="st-heading-2">Crypto Moves In Washington</h2>Selig’s move comes amid stalled negotiations in Washington over the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY Act). The Senate Agriculture Committee, which oversees matters tied to the CFTC’s jurisdiction, advanced its portion of the bill in January. The Senate Banking Committee’s section, which falls under the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), remains stalled.The intervention also follows the CFTC's announcement of an expanded 35-member crew to run the Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC), which added Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong to its roster alongside the leaders of Ripple, Robinhood, and Bullish.&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN’s stock</a> moved 1% higher after hours on Monday, building on Friday’s 16% rally sparked by its earnings call, though&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/coinbase-post-earnings-rebound-faces-a-wary-wall-street/cZR5pXqR4sr">analysts remained cautious</a> in their outlook. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the cryptocurrency exchange remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory amid ‘extremely high’ levels of chatter over the past day.&nbsp;Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/cryptocurrency/shark-tank-kevin-o-leary-says-bitcoin-crash-cleared-out-poo-poo-coins/cZRW7xKR4Mo">Shark Tank’s Kevin O’Leary Says Crypto Crash Cleared Out ‘Poo Poo’ Coins – Only Bitcoin, Ethereum Matter Now</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Michael Selig, Chairman and Commissioner of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, on Wednesday, November 19, 2025. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

Michael Selig Says CFTC Won’t Sit ‘Idly By’ As States Target Coinbase, Polymarket – First Court Filing Tuesday 

The CFTC plans to file a “friend-of-the-court” brief supporting Crypto.com in the Ninth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals on Tuesday.

Cryptocurrency

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that bets regarding the Supreme Court’s potential decision are now worth over $9 million.</li><li>On Kalshi, users think there is a 30% chance that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump tariffs by 2028.</li><li>On Polymarket, bettors think there is a slightly lower chance of a positive ruling for the Trump administration, with 28% expecting a ruling in President Trump’s favor.</li></ul>The U.S. Supreme Court has reportedly set February 20 as the next opinion day as it returns after a four-week recess, amid the ongoing case regarding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.According to a Bloomberg&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-13/supreme-court-schedules-opinions-on-feb-20-as-tariff-case-looms">report</a>, the SCOTUS is&nbsp;also expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20. Hearings in the Trump tariffs case were held in November 2025.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Predicting Markets Indicating?</h2>Data from popular prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show that bets regarding the Supreme Court’s potential decision are now worth over $9 million. While Kalshi volumes show bets worth more than $5 million, Polymarket bets had reached nearly $4.4 million at the time of writing.Data from Kalshi shows that users think there is a 30% chance the Supreme Court will rule in favor of Trump's tariffs by 2028.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Kalshi_tariffs_jpg_613b2fc839.webp" alt="Kalshi prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13" width="866" height="468"><figcaption>Kalshi prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13 | Kalshi</figcaption></figure>On Polymarket, bettors think there is a slightly lower chance of a positive ruling for the Trump administration, with 28% expecting a ruling in President Trump’s favor. Both the bets require an official announcement from the Supreme Court.<figure class="image"><img src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Polymarket_tariffs_jpg_c1d80d9584.webp" alt="Polymarket prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13" width="951" height="471"><figcaption>Polymarket prediction market bets on Supreme Court tariffs case on Feb. 13 | Polymarket</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">Trump Tariffs Draw Skepticism From Conservative Justices</h2>At a November hearing, Trump's tariffs&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-tariffs-case-supreme-court/cL2q8jQREG6">drew skepticism</a> from conservative justices, with Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Amy Coney Barrett questioning whether the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) authorized President Trump to impose emergency tariffs.Chief Justice Roberts also said that Congress has the “core power” when it comes to tax regulation, while rejecting the Trump administration’s claim that tariffs are not taxes.In January, President Trump&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/trump-600-billion-tariffs-ahead-of-supreme-court-decision/cmxMoQaR4bC">stated</a> that the U.S. would soon receive more than $600 billion in tariffs. He called the upcoming Supreme Court’s tariff decision “one of the most important ever” in the apex court’s history.Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Friday’s midday trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was up by 0.68%, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/QQQ">Invesco QQQ Trust ETF</a> (QQQ) rose 0.88%, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) gained 0.48%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bearish’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/us-consumer-inflation-january-2026-cpi-report/cZR5t5IR4sz">CPI Report: Annual Inflation Rate Comes In At 2.4% In January, Below Wall Street Expectations</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

A trade court ruled in late May that Trump tariffs were illegal but its ruling was since then stayed by an appeals court:.

Supreme Court Reportedly Sets February 20 As Next Opinion Day Amid Ongoing Trump Tariffs Case — Here Are The Latest Prediction Market Odds

According to a Bloomberg report, the SCOTUS is also expected to issue opinions on February 24 and 25, in addition to those scheduled for February 20.

In this photo illustration, the High Roller Technologies logo is seen displayed on a smartphone screen.

ROLR Stock Chases Another Winning Day As Prediction-Market Bet Keeps Paying Off

A responsible-gambling push in Ontario and aggressive 2026 growth plans keep momentum roaring.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>DraftKings’ entry into the predictions market comes after the company acquired Railbird Technologies, a federally regulated prediction market, in October.</li><li>Following the acquisition, Jefferies stated that it believes an offering in predictions is necessary to enter states in which online sports betting is illegal.</li><li>The Boston, Massachusetts-based company, known for its fantasy sports offerings, announced that its prediction markets launch is subject to oversight by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).</li></ul>DraftKings Inc. (DKNG) on Friday announced its entry into prediction markets with the launch of a dedicated app, beginning with sports and finance, taking on similar offerings from Kalshi and Polymarket.The Boston, Massachusetts-based company, known for its fantasy sports offerings, announced that its prediction markets launch comes under the oversight of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).Named DraftKings Predictions, the service is a standalone web and mobile app that allows users to trade on real-world outcomes across a wide range of markets, beginning with sports and finance, before expanding to other categories.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Railbird Acquisition</h2>DraftKings’ entry into the predictions market comes after the company acquired Railbird Technologies, a federally regulated prediction market, in October.“Along with our operational footprint, marketing and analytics infrastructure, and advanced in-house technology, we believe we are uniquely positioned to lead this space over the long term,” said Corey Gottlieb, chief product officer of DraftKings.Following the acquisition, Jefferies&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/draft-kings-stock-soars-on-railbird-deal-draws-investor-attention-as-jefferies-cheers/cLG5IQER3qP">stated</a> that it believes an offering in predictions is necessary to enter states where online sports betting is illegal.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Taking On Kalshi, Polymarket</h2>The launch of a predictions market will allow DraftKings to compete with Kalshi and Polymarket.Kalshi is currently valued at $11 billion, while rival Polymarket was&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://news.kalshi.com/p/kalshi-11-billion-valuation-series-e">reportedly</a> eyeing a valuation of $12 billion to $15 billion. Both Kalshi and Polymarket allow users to bet on a wide range of topics, including sports, politics, and other real-world events.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DKNG">DKNG stock</a> is down 7% year-to-date and 12% over the past 12 months.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/el-erian-employment-decoupling-from-gdp-due-to-ai/cLeiHPbREs4">El-Erian Sees A New ‘Unsettling’ Economic Risk Emerging In 2026 – And It’s Not Inflation Or Affordability</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, the logo of DraftKings Inc. is displayed on a smartphone screen. (Photo illustration by Cheng Xin/Getty Images)

DraftKings Takes On Kalshi, Polymarket With New Prediction App In A Push Beyond Sports Betting

Named DraftKings Predictions, the service is a standalone web and mobile app product that allows users to trade on real-world outcomes across a wide range of markets.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Gemini’s new product follows five years of regulatory review before securing DCM approval.</li><li>The exchange is offering fee-free event trading for a limited time to attract early users.</li><li>The U.S. prediction market remains limited to a small number of regulated venues.</li></ul>Gemini (GEMI) joined Robinhood (HOOD), Kalshi, Polymarket, and others in Wall Street’s new prediction market push on Monday.The crypto exchange, led by the Winklewoss twins, said it has launched ‘Gemini Predictions’ across all 50 U.S. states. For a limited period, the company will not charge fees on event-based trades, according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://x.com/Gemini/status/2000640506599211481?s=20">post</a> on X.<figure class="image"><a class="st-link-external" href="https://x.com/Gemini/status/2000640503512207559?s=20" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow"><img style="aspect-ratio:822/1069;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2025_12_15_222129_png_9119930dc4.webp" alt="Screenshot 2025-12-15 222129.png" width="822" height="1069"></a><figcaption>Gemini announces launch of 'Gemini Predictions.' | Source: @Gemini/X</figcaption></figure>The rollout comes one week after the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/gemi-stock-on-track-for-biggest-single-day-gain-since-nasdaq-debut-after-cftc-nod-for-prediction-markets/cLIxOSiREng">approved</a> Gemini to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM), clearing the way for the firm to offer regulated prediction markets to U.S. customers after roughly five years seeking approval.Despite the news,&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/GEMI">GEMI’s stock</a> fell more than 12% in Monday’s session and edged 0.8% lower in after-hours trade amid a broader downtrend in crypto equities as Bitcoin (BTC) dropped to around $85,000. On Stocktwits, however, retail sentiment around the company remained in ‘extremely bullish’ territory alongside ‘extremely high’ levels of chatter over the past day.<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:1241/132;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Screenshot_2025_12_15_222441_png_47f363d0db.webp" alt="Screenshot 2025-12-15 222441.png" width="1241" height="132"><figcaption>GEMI retail sentiment and message volume on November 15 as of 10:25 a.m. ET | Source: Stocktwits</figcaption></figure><h2 class="st-heading-2">Gemini Beats Coinbase To Market</h2>Gemini’s launch appears to put it ahead of Coinbase (COIN), which is expected to unveil prediction markets and tokenized equities next week, according to a Bloomberg&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-11/coinbase-ready-to-launch-prediction-markets-tokenized-stocks">report</a>.The report said Coinbase plans to launch tokenized stocks in-house rather than through partners. Robinhood and crypto exchange Kraken already offer tokenized U.S. stocks and exchange-traded funds, part of a broader push to bring traditional financial products onto blockchain rails.Trading activity in tokenized equities has increased in recent months. Monthly transfer volume rose 32% over the past 30 days to $1.45 billion, according to the report, reflecting growing demand for blockchain-based representations of public securities.<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/COIN">COIN’s stock</a> fell more than 6% on Monday and edged 0.8% lower in after-hours trade. Retail sentiment around the crypto exchange slid to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, while chatter remained at ‘normal’ levels.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Gemini Part Of Small CFTC Group</h2>With its DCM status, Gemini joins a small group of CFTC-regulated venues permitted to offer event contracts in the U.S. The market is currently dominated by&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/KALSHI">Kalshi</a>, which operates under the same regulatory framework.Under CFTC rules, event contracts allow traders to buy and sell binary outcomes tied to real-world events, including elections, economic data, and other measurable outcomes. These products are regulated derivatives, distinct from traditional betting or gaming products.Decentralized platforms such as Polymarket continue to operate offshore and remain unavailable to U.S. users under current regulations, highlighting the growing divide between regulated domestic markets and permissionless global alternatives. On Stockwits, retail sentiment around Kalshi trended in ‘bearish’ territory, while retail sentiment around&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/POLYMARKET">Polymarket</a> was in the ‘neutral’ zone.Meanwhile, Robinhood’s ‘prediction market’ offering operates through its event contracts hub, where users trade CFTC-regulated yes-or-no contracts. The platform routes trades through regulated derivatives exchanges and markets the products as event contracts rather than betting. <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/HOOD">HOOD's stock</a> fell 3.55% on Monday and was down more than 1% in after-hours trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around the company trended in 'bullish' territory, amid 'high' levels of chatter.Read also:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/elon-musk-becomes-first-person-ever-worth-600-billion-dollars-widens-lead-over-larry-page/cLe4i4BREoH">Elon Musk Becomes First Person Ever Worth $600B — Widens Lead Over Larry Page As Trillionaire Milestone Nears</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

The logo of Gemini Trust Company is seen at its stand in the exhibition hall during the Bitcoin 2022 Conference at Miami Beach Convention Center on April 7, 2022 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Marco Bello/Getty Images)

Gemini Beats Coinbase To Market As Prediction Markets Turn Into Wall Street’s Next Trading Battleground

Coinbase is expected to announce its own prediction markets and tokenized equities next week.

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Prediction market platforms Polymarket and Kalshi recently raised mega funding rounds and are aggressively expanding through sports wagers and partnerships.</li><li>Their rise has disrupted sportsbooks' businesses, with DraftKings and Flutter now planning their own foray into prediction markets.</li><li>Robinhood, which launched a prediction-market hub in March, has seen its stock rally sharply.&nbsp;</li></ul>Step back from the wall-to-wall AI buzz for a moment, and another fast-rising business trend comes into focus: prediction markets.Top platforms in the space – Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood’s Prediction Markets Hub – have scaled aggressively this year. Their wagers on everything from markets to politics, sports, and culture are drawing massive interest from users across the United States, as well as from financial entities looking to use their prediction data in novel ways.<h1 class="st-heading-1">Incredible Growth</h1>Kalshi on Tuesday secured $1 billion at an $11 billion valuation, marking its third fundraise of the year and more than doubling its valuation in just a few months. The platform shot to prominence as users piled into contracts ahead of November 2024’s presidential election, which saw Donald Trump win, and has since aggressively expanded into sports betting.Polymarket bagged a $2 billion cheque from the New York Stock Exchange operator Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE) two months ago, at a pre-investment valuation of $8 billion. As part of the deal, ICE will also distribute Polymarket’s event-driven data, providing customers with sentiment indicators on market-relevant topics.And Robinhood? Its stock has been on an absolute tear — HOOD is up more than threefold this year — helped in part by its aggressive push into prediction markets. The company rolled out its prediction-market hub with Kalshi in March and, just last month, snapped up a 90% stake in MIAX Derivatives Exchange, a move that sent its shares sharply higher. &nbsp;<figure class="table" style="width:100%;"><table class="ck-table-resized"><colgroup><col style="width:25%;"><col style="width:25%;"><col style="width:25%;"><col style="width:25%;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;vertical-align:bottom;">Platform&nbsp;</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;vertical-align:bottom;">Primary Volume Driver in November 2025</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;vertical-align:bottom;">Broadly Popular Contracts (Last 6 Months)</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;vertical-align:bottom;">Key Metric/Note</td></tr><tr><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;">Kalshi</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Sports-related contracts (Pro Football, NHL, NBA, etc.)</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Sports: NFL game outcomes and championships (dominant volume driver). Economics: Fed Interest Rate Decisions, Inflation, Recession probabilities</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Posted a monthly spot volume of $5.8 billion in November, driven primarily by sports</td></tr><tr><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;">Polymarket</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Macroeconomics and Politics (US Fed, Global Elections)</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Politics: US Presidential Nominees (2028), Global Elections, Political events. Macro: Fed Interest Rate Decisions, Bitcoin/Crypto prices</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Posted a monthly trading volume of $3.7 billion in November, with large volumes in its staple macro/political markets</td></tr><tr><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;">Robinhood</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Sports and Federal Reserve Rates</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Sports: NFL, NCAA March Madness, other major US sports leagues. Economics: Fed Interest Rate Decisions, CPI/Inflation</td><td style="border:0.75pt solid #000000;padding:1pt 1pt 5pt;text-align:center;">Fastest-growing revenue line for Robinhood. Trading 2.5 billion contracts in October, and over 9 billion since its launch in March 2025</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>Note: The table offers only an overview. Source: Stocktwits research<h1 class="st-heading-1">Sportsbooks On Alert</h1>That’s all great, but the surge of prediction markets is also shaking up a core industry: sportsbooks. Giants like DraftKings and Flutter Entertainment, which owns FanDuel, are quietly growing uneasy and have announced plans to roll out their own prediction-market products as soon as this month or next. Flutter is building one through a partnership with CME Group, while DraftKings will launch one&nbsp;following its recent acquisition of Railbird Technologies.In recent interviews, DraftKings and Flutter management&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/draft-kings-stock-drops-premarket-on-lower-revenue-forecast-ceo-downplays-threat-from-prediction-markets/cL2vMQ9RETi">have said</a> that sportsbooks and prediction markets are two distinct offerings and, as such, would not cannibalize each other's user bases. To be sure, sportsbooks&nbsp;account for about half of their topline, with the rest coming mostly from iGaming (casino, poker, bingo, and lottery games, both online and on the apps).&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:2400/1400;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/koyfin_20251203_025149132_png_a50ca258de.webp" alt="koyfin_20251203_025149132.png" width="2400" height="1400"></figure>However, some recent products, like same-game parlays, strike right at the core of DraftKings’ and Flutter’s core sportbook offerings. What’s more, when Polymarket and Kalshi signed a major deal with the National Hockey League, the first major U.S. sports league to license its trademarks to prediction markets, DKNG and FLUT stocks did not take it kindly.In fact, recent results from both show weak sportsbook revenues, though that’s also due to customer-friendly results in this NFL season. Nevertheless, DraftKings tightened its annual forecast. Some analysts are&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/flutter-entertainment-faces-price-target-cuts-due-to-nfl-weakness/ch6Fdd1R3V2">concerned</a>, too. &nbsp;<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:1600/1133;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Draft_Kings_sportsbook_revenue_jpg_91c79b03cd.webp" alt="DraftKings_sportsbook_revenue.jpg" width="1600" height="1133"></figure>&nbsp;<figure class="image"><img style="aspect-ratio:1600/1133;" src="https://news.stocktwits-cdn.com/Flutters_US_Sportsbook_revenue_jpg_c7cf47fadb.webp" alt="Flutters_US_Sportsbook_revenue.jpg" width="1600" height="1133"></figure><h1 class="st-heading-1">Wider Appeal</h1>Prediction-market platforms are forging partnerships at breakneck speed to broaden their appeal, and also offering everything from outlandish contracts on meteor strikes or nuclear detonations to more audience-friendly wagers on Oscar winners or&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/ai-might-beat-trump-the-pope-and-nvidia-s-ceo-to-become-time-s-2025-person-of-the-year-polymarket/cL5eFmXREhX">Time’s Person of the Year</a>.Historically, platforms like Kalshi were focused on politics, macroeconomic events, weather, and other “non-sports” outcomes. The 2025 wave of partnerships with major sports leagues (NHL, UFC) and mainstream finance and media outlets (Google Finance, Yahoo Finance) marks a pivot — from fringe financial “bets” to broadly accepted, regulated event-trading tools across sports, entertainment, and finance."Kalshi is replacing debate, subjectivity, and talk with markets, accuracy, and truth," CEO Tarek Mansour said in a statement on Tuesday. “We have created a new way of consuming and engaging with information. It’s hard to have an opinion about the future today without thinking about Kalshi.”<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DKNG">DKNG</a> and&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/FLUT">FLUT</a> shares are down 10% and 19.3% year-to-date, respectively, with their recent Stocktwits sentiment as ‘bearish.’ <a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/HOOD">HOOD</a> is up 227% and also had a ‘bearish’ sentiment.Editor’s note: Stocktwits and Polymarket have a partnership that provides retail investors with prediction data and insights on the Stocktwits platform.&nbsp;For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

DraftKings Sportsbook at Foxwoods Resort Casino, Tuesday, May 6, 2025. (Dave Zajac/Connecticut Post via Getty Images)

The Prediction Markets Rush: Polymarket, Kalshi Are Ascending Fast — And Sportsbooks DraftKings And Flutter Are On High Alert

Massive funding deals and the recent wave of partnerships with major sports leagues and mainstream finance and media outlets mark a pivot for Kalshi and Polymarket.

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POLYMARKETPolymarket

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