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$ATOM 
Thoughts on the 1Q26 Conference Call

Overall, the first quarter was a period where progress with customers was strengthened. While the market preemptively pushed the stock price up in hopes of hearing words like &quot;contracts&quot; or &quot;negotiations&quot; regarding GAA, anyone who understands the typical processes of the semiconductor industry can see that the current situation is progressing quite well. Scott remains confident that the probability of a contract being signed within this year is very high. I personally expect license contracts to emerge between August and December.

First, after obtaining silicon data at AMAT&#39;s (equipment partner) evaluation facility in February for GAA, meetings were held with customers, and the process has entered the Proof of Concept (PoC) stage within the customers&#39; GAA structures.

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Atomera Inc

 
Thoughts on the 1Q26 Conference Call

Overall, the first quarter was a period where progress with customers was strengthened. While the market preemptively pushed the stock price up in hopes of hearing words like "contracts" or "negotiations" regarding GAA, anyone who understands the typical processes of the semiconductor industry can see that the current situation is progressing quite well. Scott remains confident that the probability of a contract being signed within this year is very high. I personally expect license contracts to emerge between August and December.

First, after obtaining silicon data at AMAT's (equipment partner) evaluation facility in February for GAA, meetings were held with customers, and the process has entered the Proof of Concept (PoC) stage within the customers' GAA structures.

blueedge

2/ This process is expected to take roughly 6 months, as depositing MST at the company’s fab takes 2-3 months and processing the remaining steps at the customer’s fab takes more than 3 months. 

Therefore, customer demo evaluation results are expected to come out in the third quarter at the earliest or the fourth quarter at the latest. 

If good results are achieved here, it will go through a process of tuning the optimal structure by depositing MST using the Epi equipment within the customer’s site. Once the PDK is finalized, it can lead to mass production. The entire process to mass production is expected to take about 2 years. However, if a license agreement is announced, the stock price will begin to reflect this in advance.

A license/JDA contract with a GAA customer grants the right to deposit MST with the customer&#39;s own epi equipment and must be negotiated before starting the tuning process.

2/ This process is expected to take roughly 6 months, as depositing MST at the company’s fab takes 2-3 months and processing the remaining steps at the customer’s fab takes more than 3 months. 

Therefore, customer demo evaluation results are expected to come out in the third quarter at the earliest or the fourth quarter at the latest. 

If good results are achieved here, it will go through a process of tuning the optimal structure by depositing MST using the Epi equipment within the customer’s site. Once the PDK is finalized, it can lead to mass production. The entire process to mass production is expected to take about 2 years. However, if a license agreement is announced, the stock price will begin to reflect this in advance.

A license/JDA contract with a GAA customer grants the right to deposit MST with the customer's own epi equipment and must be negotiated before starting the tuning process.

3/ Therefore, there is a high possibility that a license agreement will come out in the 3rd or 4th quarter when the demo evaluation results are released. 

I expect the GAA customers to be Intel/Samsung. 

Intel is presumed to be the TR3 company, and there was no separate mention of TR3 customers in this conference call. Also, there was no separate mention of the JDA1 customer (Samsung). This seems to be because both are GAA customers, so separate mentions were avoided. 

On the other hand, TI, a TR2 customer, was mentioned separately as a large IDM company. Regarding the reason for the increase in R&amp;D expenses, it was mentioned as outsourced engineering and metrology costs for wafer runs of GAA, large IDM, and JDA customers. This appears to refer to Intel, Samsung, TI, and GF.

At Intel, wafer evaluations are currently active, and since Samsung originally had a JDA and had conducted many evaluations together in GAA, I believe it would have been easy to start this evaluation.

3/ Therefore, there is a high possibility that a license agreement will come out in the 3rd or 4th quarter when the demo evaluation results are released. 

I expect the GAA customers to be Intel/Samsung. 

Intel is presumed to be the TR3 company, and there was no separate mention of TR3 customers in this conference call. Also, there was no separate mention of the JDA1 customer (Samsung). This seems to be because both are GAA customers, so separate mentions were avoided. 

On the other hand, TI, a TR2 customer, was mentioned separately as a large IDM company. Regarding the reason for the increase in R&D expenses, it was mentioned as outsourced engineering and metrology costs for wafer runs of GAA, large IDM, and JDA customers. This appears to refer to Intel, Samsung, TI, and GF.

At Intel, wafer evaluations are currently active, and since Samsung originally had a JDA and had conducted many evaluations together in GAA, I believe it would have been easy to start this evaluation.

4/ Therefore, if a license/JDA comes out in the future, since Samsung already had a JDA, there is a high possibility that only Intel will be announced. Of course, even if a JDA is formed, there is a high probability that the customer name will not be mentioned due to an NDA. TSMC and Rapidus appear to be under discussion. Since Rapidus has no prototype and may take a long time until mass production, it will not be easy to conduct a demo evaluation. If it is mentioned in the next conference call that the number of GAA demo evaluation customers has increased to three, it will mean TSMC and will be a very large catalyst for the stock price.

For DRAM, it was appealed as a solution that can resolve the current production capacity shortage, and it was stated that they are collaborating in various fields where MST can be utilized due to the increase in Epi processes in future 3D DRAM/4F2 structures.

5/It was a bit disappointing that customer feedback regarding recent MST on Wafer evaluation results was not mentioned. It would be best not to expect rapid commercialization in DRAM.

Atomera noted that additional wafer run results from their large IDM customer (TI) are expected soon, and the company is confident that recent results with STM will lead to a restart of product development collaboration in the near future.

Since internal approval at STM can be very fast, a contract announcement might come out first for a new application with STM (GaN, RF, FDSOI power semiconductors, etc.). At GF (JDA2), wafer work is continuing. Since TI, GF, and STM seem to be nearing the end of their evaluation work, it would not be strange for a commercial contract to come out at any time for any of them.

In RF, silicon wafer run results from customers are coming out, moving beyond TCAD simulation results. This supports the powerful effects obtained through simulations so far.

Mr. Long

6/ However, while it appears that wafer results from an RF Fabless licensee have come out, it is somewhat complex as they are linked with a foundry. Therefore, it is said that they are discussing the most efficient path to commercialization. RF seems capable of being commercialized quickly as it can be sold as MST-on-Wafer.

In power semiconductors, new development work is being conducted in TrenchFETs, which are mainly used in AI data centers. Although it is still in the early stages, I presume the companies to be Infineon and Onsemi.

In GaN, as the wafer delivery for the first commercial customer was deferred to the second quarter, the revenue was also deferred. It is said that they obtained the industry&#39;s best data by blocking gallium and aluminum ions from entering the silicon substrate through MST interface engineering, which had been the biggest problem in RF GaN for 20 years: the parasitic channel issue.

6/ However, while it appears that wafer results from an RF Fabless licensee have come out, it is somewhat complex as they are linked with a foundry. Therefore, it is said that they are discussing the most efficient path to commercialization. RF seems capable of being commercialized quickly as it can be sold as MST-on-Wafer.

In power semiconductors, new development work is being conducted in TrenchFETs, which are mainly used in AI data centers. Although it is still in the early stages, I presume the companies to be Infineon and Onsemi.

In GaN, as the wafer delivery for the first commercial customer was deferred to the second quarter, the revenue was also deferred. It is said that they obtained the industry's best data by blocking gallium and aluminum ions from entering the silicon substrate through MST interface engineering, which had been the biggest problem in RF GaN for 20 years: the parasitic channel issue.

7/ Although this is still initial data, it is projected to be sufficient for rapid adoption, and RF GaN semiconductors are expected to be used mainly in telecommunications, defense, and satellites.

Collaboration with the equipment partner (AMAT), who helped in collaborating deeply with so many customers, was expanded this quarter, entering a completely new dimension of joint development level. It is said that they are having weekly meetings with the AMAT engineering team to develop test data necessary for customer marketing, and are working by digging deep together when customers ask questions and request more demos. By utilizing their testing and development infrastructure to prepare materials for joint customer marketing and sales to explain what MST technology is and how good of a solution it is, they are reinforcing both the company&#39;s technical speed and credibility within the ecosystem.

7/ Although this is still initial data, it is projected to be sufficient for rapid adoption, and RF GaN semiconductors are expected to be used mainly in telecommunications, defense, and satellites.

Collaboration with the equipment partner (AMAT), who helped in collaborating deeply with so many customers, was expanded this quarter, entering a completely new dimension of joint development level. It is said that they are having weekly meetings with the AMAT engineering team to develop test data necessary for customer marketing, and are working by digging deep together when customers ask questions and request more demos. By utilizing their testing and development infrastructure to prepare materials for joint customer marketing and sales to explain what MST technology is and how good of a solution it is, they are reinforcing both the company's technical speed and credibility within the ecosystem.

8/
I see the value of a GAA license agreement at $1B for Intel, $1B for Samsung, and $6B for TSMC. 

If mass production royalty revenue starts to come in two years, the value will be 3-5 times higher. 

In the case of Power/RF/GaN, there is a current value of $200-300M for each company, and once mass production royalty revenue starts, a value 3-5 times higher will be assigned. 

For now, it may be appropriate to target a $2B market capitalization through license agreements with Intel/Samsung in the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year. 

Since there is a high possibility that license agreements related to Power/RF/GaN will come out this year from TI/GF/STM/Qorvo(RF)/Infineon, a market capitalization target of up to $3B seems possible. 

Investors&#39; interest has become quite high, and therefore, the demand for immediate results in the form of contracts is reflected in the stock price.

8/
I see the value of a GAA license agreement at $1B for Intel, $1B for Samsung, and $6B for TSMC. 

If mass production royalty revenue starts to come in two years, the value will be 3-5 times higher. 

In the case of Power/RF/GaN, there is a current value of $200-300M for each company, and once mass production royalty revenue starts, a value 3-5 times higher will be assigned. 

For now, it may be appropriate to target a $2B market capitalization through license agreements with Intel/Samsung in the 3rd or 4th quarter of this year. 

Since there is a high possibility that license agreements related to Power/RF/GaN will come out this year from TI/GF/STM/Qorvo(RF)/Infineon, a market capitalization target of up to $3B seems possible. 

Investors' interest has become quite high, and therefore, the demand for immediate results in the form of contracts is reflected in the stock price.

9/However, it is a contract that will come out eventually, and according to the process, that &quot;eventually&quot; is likely to be this year. 

If one considers that once the contract comes out, the market capitalization could go several times higher, the adjustment in stock price is merely an opportunity for funds to move from short-term investors to long-term investors. 

Throughout my long three-year investment journey, I have experienced many ups, downs, and adjustments; sometimes the market was excited, and sometimes it was indifferent.

However, looking at the actual progress with customers this year, I feel that we are facing stronger contract momentum than ever before. I believe this year and next year will be the time for the company to make a quantum jump, and this thought has not changed even after this conference call. 

Thank you.

Kahless

Ryan zieg

Jeremy Barnett

9/However, it is a contract that will come out eventually, and according to the process, that "eventually" is likely to be this year. 

If one considers that once the contract comes out, the market capitalization could go several times higher, the adjustment in stock price is merely an opportunity for funds to move from short-term investors to long-term investors. 

Throughout my long three-year investment journey, I have experienced many ups, downs, and adjustments; sometimes the market was excited, and sometimes it was indifferent.

However, looking at the actual progress with customers this year, I feel that we are facing stronger contract momentum than ever before. I believe this year and next year will be the time for the company to make a quantum jump, and this thought has not changed even after this conference call. 

Thank you.

@blueedge ,
Thanks for the write up.
I could tell that certain customers didn&#39;t want Scott mentioning them.  Namely jda1.  The ones who are super sensitive.
The ones believed to be samsung.
I have one key problem with samsung being JDA1. They have the technology installed for 5 years. Jda1, if a GAA company would have likely already done diffusion blocking trials on their own, a long time ago.  Samsung has had issues with GAA since the debut of 3nm, with no problem adopting fdsoi.
It just doesn&#39;t feel right.
Samsung has the r&amp;d team to figure it out and they likely would have if they had the technology installed.
If jda1 is a GAA player, they should be farthest ahead and most likey to move first.
Judging by how scott said that the two are now in an evaluation phase leads me to believe the ones he is mentioning do not have mst installed, unless this tool the partner is selling deposits mst in a different or more precise way and they didnt have that ability before, which is possible.

 ,
Thanks for the write up.
I could tell that certain customers didn't want Scott mentioning them.  Namely jda1.  The ones who are super sensitive.
The ones believed to be samsung.
I have one key problem with samsung being JDA1. They have the technology installed for 5 years. Jda1, if a GAA company would have likely already done diffusion blocking trials on their own, a long time ago.  Samsung has had issues with GAA since the debut of 3nm, with no problem adopting fdsoi.
It just doesn't feel right.
Samsung has the r&d team to figure it out and they likely would have if they had the technology installed.
If jda1 is a GAA player, they should be farthest ahead and most likey to move first.
Judging by how scott said that the two are now in an evaluation phase leads me to believe the ones he is mentioning do not have mst installed, unless this tool the partner is selling deposits mst in a different or more precise way and they didnt have that ability before, which is possible.

@blueedge 
Very insightful and interesting. 
You should be advising the team on optimising the representation of commercial progress.

 
Very insightful and interesting. 
You should be advising the team on optimising the representation of commercial progress.

@timeinabottle Samsung evaluated MST in GAA early on, and the current evaluation should be viewed differently as it is being conducted in a different area with different evaluation factors.

 Samsung evaluated MST in GAA early on, and the current evaluation should be viewed differently as it is being conducted in a different area with different evaluation factors.

Johnnyb11

@blueedge ,
If jda1 is samsung, i bet they didnt want scott mentioning them. They will be much farther ahead than any of the others.  They would have tried mst in this region long ago.  It makes zero sense why they wouldn&#39;t have already. For heavens sake they  have lost customer after customer because of yield. They would have done anything to increase yield.
I just cannot believe they would lose billions in opportunity.
Someone has been testing in GAA for some time.  He made that clear many calls ago... and when the company claims &quot;is commercializing&quot;, they know someone is planning to bring to production.  This isnt an evaluation its a statement.  
So my best guess is, either both are new and jda1 isn&#39;t included in the figure because they dont want atomera mentioning anything about them, or jda1 just isnt samsung.
Its super odd that jda1 didnt get any mention at all. That may be the first time they didnt mention anything about them.
Super strange...

 ,
If jda1 is samsung, i bet they didnt want scott mentioning them. They will be much farther ahead than any of the others.  They would have tried mst in this region long ago.  It makes zero sense why they wouldn't have already. For heavens sake they  have lost customer after customer because of yield. They would have done anything to increase yield.
I just cannot believe they would lose billions in opportunity.
Someone has been testing in GAA for some time.  He made that clear many calls ago... and when the company claims "is commercializing", they know someone is planning to bring to production.  This isnt an evaluation its a statement.  
So my best guess is, either both are new and jda1 isn't included in the figure because they dont want atomera mentioning anything about them, or jda1 just isnt samsung.
Its super odd that jda1 didnt get any mention at all. That may be the first time they didnt mention anything about them.
Super strange...

@blueedge ,
I think it may be more of a situation of not bringing up memory, because they could be may be in negotions with a memory player RN.  Note that wafer based products can move faster and when asked about what tech could move fastest he reiterate - wafer based products - RF, GaN and Memory.
He did say, regarding logic/memory, that logic was farther ahead.  Does that mean that a license isnt as close?  Could be.  We have a good idea that a GAA license can be in the next 3 months.  Memory- they could chose to license at any time - since they are in R&amp;D process of 4F2, where these guys want to have a license to integrate diffusion barriers.  I have a feeling they are waiting for the logic guys validation and once that comes, they will follow.
Notice how all the dram guys signed up with Applied materials Epic center?
The avalanche could be coming soon.

 ,
I think it may be more of a situation of not bringing up memory, because they could be may be in negotions with a memory player RN.  Note that wafer based products can move faster and when asked about what tech could move fastest he reiterate - wafer based products - RF, GaN and Memory.
He did say, regarding logic/memory, that logic was farther ahead.  Does that mean that a license isnt as close?  Could be.  We have a good idea that a GAA license can be in the next 3 months.  Memory- they could chose to license at any time - since they are in R&D process of 4F2, where these guys want to have a license to integrate diffusion barriers.  I have a feeling they are waiting for the logic guys validation and once that comes, they will follow.
Notice how all the dram guys signed up with Applied materials Epic center?
The avalanche could be coming soon.