Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers came out with their fourth-quarter delivery numbers today, sending their stocks all over the place. 📊
First, let’s start with everyone’s favorite, Tesla, which delivered mixed news to investors. It managed 1.81 million EV deliveries around the globe in 2023, meeting its full-year guidance and narrowly topping the consensus estimates. That was up 38% YoY but slowed from 2022.
However, things got a little shifty when Chinese automaker BYD topped Tesla for the first time, becoming the world’s largest EV seller on a quarterly basis. Although Tesla remained ahead of BYD for the entire calendar year, China continues establishing itself as a powerhouse in the global battery-powered car market. For context, BYD sold 1.57 million EVs (+73% YoY) and 1.44 million hybrids in 2023. This narrows the annual delivery gap vs. Tesla to about 200,000 EVs. 🚗
BYD’s rise reflects not only the appetite for these vehicles but also highlights the importance of automakers bringing down costs to encourage mass-market adoption. The EVs that BYD sells are more affordable than those offered by Tesla, but it’s starting its global expansion with Europe rather than the U.S. for now.
As for Tesla shares, they were down marginally as they continue to contend with a downtrend line from their 2021 highs. While fundamental analysts are closely monitoring deliveries, technical analysts are watching this trendline closely. 👀
Shares of Rivian did not fare well today, falling 10% after its 2023 delivery data fell shy of expectations. It produced 17,541 EVs and delivered 13,972 vehicles in the fourth quarter. And although its total deliveries of 50,122 vehicles were up 146.5% YoY, they still came in below Wall Street’s forecast of 51,000. 👎
Meanwhile, despite posting record deliveries, Li Auto, Nio, and XPeng fell by various amounts. Nio delivered 31% YoY growth at 159,858 full-year units. XPeng showed 17% YoY growth at 141,871 units. And Li had 180% YoY growth at 376,030 units.
Overall, expectations are that 2024 will be another challenging year for the electric vehicle market. Governments around the globe continue to support the industry’s growth, but increased competition and lower affordability due to higher interest rates will remain critical challenges for these companies. 😬
The market remains particularly concerned about the smaller startups that have struggled to stay on track with production and delivery targets, as well as profitability. Last year was not kind to their share prices, and analysts don’t expect this year to differ.
As always, we’ll have to wait and see what happens in this highly-watched industry. 🤷