The Deal with COVID Boosters 💉

The U.S’s drug regulator, the FDA, voted on two proposals today involving COVID-19 boosters. 💉 The FDA panel unanimously recommended Pfizer’s third dose for Americans 65 and older. The FDA also recommended boosters for people with high risk of contracting severe cases.

However, the FDA ultimately rejected boosters for the broader population (Americans ages 16-65), squashing Joe Biden’s desire for a vaccine booster campaign. Biden has underscored the importance of a third shot, hoping to mitigate a more-severe resurgence of COVID in the Winter. A recent study shows that roughly 0.2% of Americans have died from COVID, with many more affected by side-effects.

$PFE stock fell 1.3% today. $MRNA stock dropped in sympathy, -2.41%. 👎 Other vaccine makers like Novavax, which has yet to release its own COVID-19 vaccine, rose 11 basis points before falling after hours.

The 7-day average number of U.S. COVID-19 cases as of Sept. 16 was 150,336. Now, the U.S. has as many cases as it did in November 2020. Those numbers lowered after the vaccine became widely distributed and last Winter came to a close. However, cases are back the rise since June 2021, elevated in-part by the more-dangerous Delta variant.

Delta has had a meaningful impact on the economy, mostly through supply chain woes and prompting higher prices on products. The virus is causing America (and other countries) to leave money on the table. The CDC is now imminently concerned about a new variant, the Mu variant.

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Payrolls Play Economists Again

September’s headline jobs number was better than expected, yet stocks and bonds are rallying. We thought a strong labor market was a negative, so what gives? Let’s break it down. 👇

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, widely surpassing expectations of 170,000. That topped August’s number by over 100,000 and was the largest since January. Service-related industries accounted for 234,000 of the total job gains, with goods-producers adding just 29,000. 

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Quit Rate Underscores Labor Softening

In writing about the economy, we’ve discussed the slow but steady signs that the labor market is softening. And those signs got a big boost with the July JOLTs report. Let’s take a look. 👀

The Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTs) is a great leading indicator for the U.S. job market. It’s leading in that it typically turns negative well ahead of lagging indicators like the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings, which we’ll look at later this week. 🔮

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13,000 Auto Workers Strike

After failing to reach a deal with the “Big Three Automakers” before Thursday’s 11:59 p.m. deadline, the United Auto Workers (UAW) union officially launched its historic strike. Although there have been major strikes before, there has never been a strike against all three automakers at once.

Combined, the automakers have 150,000 UAW-represented employees across their operations. For now, though, the strike is beginning at just one factory from each automaker, accounting for roughly 13,000 workers. However, union leaders say they could gradually expand the strike to additional plants (or all of them) if their demands are unmet.

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Restaurants Stocks Worried About Consumers?

Restaurants have outperformed the rest of the retail space for the last couple of years. Driving that strength was consumers getting out of their houses, shifting their discretionary spending from goods to experiences as they “revenge spent” their way back into the world. 💸

But now, as the job market weakens and student loan repayments begin, some analysts expect consumer spending to be impacted. That could hurt discretionary sectors across the board, especially if inflation remains elevated. 

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