The Great Migration or The Great Upgrade?

The labor market is in a state right now. You’ve probably heard of labor shortages, the “Great Migration,” ongoing negotiations between large corporations and their workers, and monthly jobless numbers. But what if high quit rates aren’t indicative of people staying home, rather… Americans seeking better employment opportunities? 🤔

According to Forbes, the average pay for CEOs has increased 1,322% since 1978 — since the same year, the average workers’ pay has only increased 18%. Since the onset of the pandemic, workers have begun to value flexibility, benefits, health and safety, and compensation more than ever before. In an article by CBS about the “Great Migration,” the pandemic made workers question “What do I wanna do? What makes my heart sing? If not now, then when?”

As quit rates crept upwards in the fall, could it be that workers sought a “Great Upgrade” in their careers rather than just a “Great Migration?” You could even call it a “value migration” — employees of value are leaving to employers that value them even more.

An EPI Economist, Elise Gould, commented on November’s JOLTS data: “what’s often missing from that coverage is that workers who are quitting their jobs aren’t dropping out of the labor force, they are quitting to take other jobs.” December’s payrolls missed estimates by about 200,000 jobs, but we can’t forget — December’s unemployment rate actually fell month-over-month to 3.9%. 💡

Especially among workers in lower-paid sectors, there is a huge surge in the number of adults seeking higher-paid, more fulfilling employment opportunities. In the week ending January 15, 2022, filings for unemployment insurance rose to 286,000, about 27.1% above estimates. 

After all, despite the high unemployment figures and quits rates — the unemployment rate isn’t far from where it was in the pre-pandemic Trump era. It’s possible this rise in unemployment may manifest in a shift to new work opportunities for many Americans and for higher expectations for employers.

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