Inflation Remains Fed Despite Energy’s Pullback

November’s producer price index (PPI) came in higher than expected, rising by 0.3% MoM and 7.4% YoY. ðŸ”Ĩ

The culprit this time? Wholesale vegetables…which saw a 38% surge. This caused the overall food index to rise 3.3%, which offset the 3.3% decline in energy costs.

Core PPI doubled the 0.2% MoM estimate at 0.4%, excluding food and energy. While the YoY rise of 6.2% is less than October’s 6.6% reading, inflation remains far too high for the Fed’s liking.

The news sent bond yields, which had been trending lower for a few weeks, higher. The Fed says they’re staying aggressive until inflation comes down meaningfully, and today’s reading was anything but that.

Meanwhile, China’s producer prices fell overseas in November as inflation cooled consumer demand. Weak activity and soft demand in the world’s second-largest economy remain a concern for investors. 📉

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Yield Curve Inversion Deepens

It’s been about a year since the yield curve popped onto investors’ radars, with us discussing it in October and November of 2022. ◀ïļ

As discussed in our posts, a yield curve inversion is not a perfect indicator of a recession, but it has a pretty good track record. That’s because when short-term rates are above long-term rates, investors believe growth (i.e., inflation) will be higher in the short term than the longer term. As such, they demand a higher yield to hold short-term bonds than long-term ones.

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Fed’s Rate Cut Message Finally Heard

Inflation worries had all but disappeared recently. But as usual, the market likes to fool the majority, so we saw January’s consumer prices surprise to the upside today. ðŸŦĻ

Headline CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY, topping the 0.2% and 2.9% Wall Street had expected. Core consumer prices, which exclude food and energy prices, rose 0.4% MoM and 3.9% YoY. Shelter was again the largest component driving the increase, climbing 0.6% MoM and 6% YoY. 🔚

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Market Looks Past CPI Report

If it feels like the market is largely finished obsessing about inflation data, it’s because it essentially is. Unless there’s a significant pick up in the core inflation metrics the Fed is watching closely, the market seems set on rates staying steady at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting.

And August’s consumer price index (CPI) data did little to move the needle. ðŸ˜ī

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Payrolls Play Economists Again

September’s headline jobs number was better than expected, yet stocks and bonds are rallying. We thought a strong labor market was a negative, so what gives? Let’s break it down. 👇

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 336,000 in September, widely surpassing expectations of 170,000. That topped August’s number by over 100,000 and was the largest since January. Service-related industries accounted for 234,000 of the total job gains, with goods-producers adding just 29,000. 

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