Policy

June 6, 2022

Solar Stocks Shine After Biden’s Tariff-ic News

Today the White House announced two actions aimed at increasing solar use in the U.S. ☀️

First off, President Biden waived import tariffs on solar panels from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam for two years.

Many solar projects had been halted in March after the Commerce Department announced an investigation into whether imports were circumventing tariffs on goods made in China. ❌

While this investigation will continue, the administration made it clear that panels imported during the next 24 months will not face the threat of retroactive payments. 💰

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This clarification should give companies enough confidence to move forward with projects without having to hold excess reserves to pay potential tariffs.

In addition to waiving tariffs, Biden invoked the Defense Production Act to spur domestic solar panel manufacturing. 🏭

Many of the administration’s clean energy plans remain held up in congress, so Biden is using the tools at his disposal to push things forward. 

Solar ETF $TAN was up 4.26% today on the news, though it is basically flat YoY.

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Policy

January 31, 2024

Risks To The Rate Cut Thesis

One of the big themes we’ve discussed for the last four months has been the Fed cutting rates in 2024. However, there’s been a major disconnect between the market’s expectations and the Fed’s guidance since November. That disconnect made today’s Fed decision and commentary tricky for the market to digest. Let’s talk about why. 🤔

First off, going into this year, the Fed fund futures market was anticipating six rate cuts during 2024. Meanwhile, the Fed’s guidance in December suggested the central bank was estimating just three cuts during the year, as it believes there are still upside risks to inflation.

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December 20, 2023

General Mills Pushed Too Far

Consumer packaged goods companies have been passing higher costs through to consumers by raising prices and/or shrinking package sizes. Given the tepid demand, pricing power was their primary way to grow revenues. But it appears that some companies are approaching (or have hit) the limit of what consumers are willing to tolerate. 🛑

General Mills is the latest company to share those concerns via its second-quarter results.

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January 3, 2024

New Year, Same POTential

Cannabis stocks had another rough year in 2024, failing to make any meaningful progress or participate in the broader stock market’s rally. But, like all beaten-down industries, they occasionally pop back in the news like they did today. 📰

In late August, the industry’s biggest names and ETFs began rallying after a top official at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) wrote to Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA) Administrator Anne Milgram. In it, the official called for marijuana to be reclassified as a Schedule III drug under the Controlled Substances Act. 

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Policy

June 28, 2023

Banks Pass Fed’s Stress Test

We all have stress in our lives. But according to the Federal Reserve’s annual stress test results, the largest U.S. Banks shouldn’t be one of them. 👍

This test aims to help ensure that large banks can lend to households and businesses even in a severe recession. They were implemented under the Dodd-Frank Act, a response to the 2008 financial crisis that saw the global property market implode and credit markets freeze.

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Policy

April 14, 2023

What The Fed Did He Just Say?

Despite the market celebrating cooler-than-expected CPI and PPI prints this week, one Fed Governor remains thoroughly unimpressed by the progress. 😒

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said that U.S. central bankers “haven’t made much progress” despite embarking on one of the most aggressive rate tightening cycles in history. He noted that important measures and components of underlying inflation have “basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement.”

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Policy

February 14, 2023

Biden Selects New “Top Economic Adviser”

It’s widely expected that U.S. President Joe Biden will name Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard to the White House’s top economic policy position this week. 📝

She will replace White House National Economic Council (NEC) Director Brian Deese, who recently resigned. Additionally, Jared Bernstein will likely replace Cecilia Rouse as chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. And many expect the Labor Department’s chief economist, Joelle Gamble, to be made a deputy NEC director.

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Policy

June 21, 2023

Soundbites From Several Fed Speakers

The Federal Reserve’s Chairman Jerome Powell delivered his testimony to Congress today, providing an outlook for the economy and banking system. Several other central bank members also spoke, creating a lot of headlines. 

Let’s look at some key soundbites so you don’t have to watch the full three-hour video. 👇

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