Boring. To sum up the weekend’s trading activity for crypto, it was boring. Not a lot of excitement in either direction – but given where the market is sitting, not surprising.
The entire cryptocurrency market looks a lot like it did from August 2018 to mid-November 2018. And if patterns and history repeat themselves – as they often do in the crypto world, it looks a little dire for the bulls.
Intra-crypto fighting between the XRP ($XRP.X) Army and Charles Hoskinson hasn’t made the environment any better – that’s something we’ll review today.
Also on deck: Polkadot ($DOT.X) and Cosmos ($ATOM.X) beat Ethereum ($ETH.X) in this one metric and a Crypto 101 lesson on a powerful reversal pattern known as the Wedge.
Before we do that, though, here’s how the market looked near the end of the trading day:
|Binance Coin (BNB)||
|Altcoin Market Cap||
|Total Market Cap||
If you don’t know what an ‘Army’ is in the crypto space, it’s a group of people who are fanatically devoted to a certain cryptocurrency. It’s like a cult.
And the armies are like zombies in a massive herd without anyone to eat; the second an army catches a hint of prey, they all suddenly become alert and charge to attack their quarry.
And not like Walking Dead zombies, like 28-days Later zombies – the ones that sprint.
In this case, the XRP ($XRP.X) Army was unleashed on Cardano’s ($ADA.X) founder, Charles Hoskinson. Why?
Long story short, The Hosk took to Twitter ($TWTR) to discuss the XRP vs. SEC case. The Hosk made a point that the corruption charges against some of Ripple’s current and former officers have nothing to do with the Howie test to determine if XRP is a security or not.
The bit that got The Hosk under the XRP Army radar was his criticism of going after a former SEC employee and accusing that person of corruption without any evidence. And that’s when the poo hit the fan.
The Hosk linked this Tweet from an XRP Army account calling on the XRP Army to “… xrp army sleuths please start digging dirt on Charles hoskinson especially his days in and around eth…”
The Hosk followed up with his disappointment with the XRP Army:
Great now the conspiracy has spread to me. I guess the guy at ethereum for only six months prior to launch who proposed a different distribution and fundraising model is somehow connected to the years after I left. This is really sad and shameful. Really XRP Army? https://t.co/H4kMfmjHYi
— Charles Hoskinson (@IOHK_Charles) October 8, 2022
The Hosk did get an assist from Ripple’s co-founder and executive chairman, Chris Larsen, lending support to The Hosk and praised his contributions to the crypto space.
Separately, some may not be aware, but Charles has been instrumental in crypto + climate initiatives, specifically researching and developing code for Proof of Useful Work (a way for Bitcoin to become a carbon-negative chain). I appreciate you engaging on this important issue!
— Chris Larsen (@chrislarsensf) October 9, 2022
Crypto drama at its finest. 🤦♂️
CryptoGlobe, citing Bloomberg Intelligence’s Crypto Outlook report, reported that Polkadot ($DOT.X) and Cosmos ($ATOM.X) are the only two major Proof-of-Stake layer-1 networks that currently beat Ethereum ($ETH.X).
The Real (Adjusted) Rate % for Polkadot and Cosmos was 5.80% and 5.13%, respectively, compared to Ethereum’s 5.03%. A very interesting takeaway from the report was a clear sign that institutions may be looking into the DeFi space for future yields:
“The emergence of crypto as an asset class in conjunction with a yield component presents a new set of considerations for investors when assessing the risk/reward opportunities in this space. Given the volatility and newness of the demand for smart contract use, staking assets could be considered as equivalent to junk bonds. Yields for proof-of-stake are similar to corporate bonds in that they’re tied to the fees/cash flows of the network/company.”
Not all cryptocurrencies provide staking rewards, but those that do can vary significantly from one network to the next. Additionally, some cryptocurrency exchange simply the staking process by offering it directly through their platform, such as Kraken.
Staking rewards via Kraken:
- Polkadot 9-12% RPY (Rewards Per Year)
- Cosmos 12-15% RPY
- Ethereum 4-7% RPY
If interest rates continue to rise and if there is a real shift to income generation and yield, the crypto space will likely be the new frontier. 🤲
If you’re a short-term bear, you might like this Technically Speaking article for today. If you’re a short-term bull, you’ll likely hate it.
The image below is Bitcoin’s ($BTC.X) daily candlestick chart with a triangle pattern known as a Descending Triangle. The Descending Triangle is an inherently bearish pattern. Bitcoin is at a make-or-break point within this pattern.
Some behaviors that are very common with all triangle patterns are these:
- The breakout often occurs in the final third of the triangle.
- Volume typically falls before the breakout.
#2 is sometimes hard to gauge because not all exchanges show the same volume. However, TradingView has its own Bitcoin Index chart that aggregates volume from the largest exchanges and doesn’t show a major change in overall volume.
#1, however, is definitely present – Bitcoin is well within the final third of the descending triangle.
What may be of concern for any short-term bulls is how similar this pattern is on the daily chart to two other instances where Bitcoin had its final down drive before leveling off and reversing:
The triangle from 2018 that resulted in the big drop in mid-November 2018:
The end of the post-Mt. Gox triangle in late 2014 that extended in 2015 before collapsing in January 2015:
Does this mean that history will repeat itself again? Hard to say. But if you look at any of the recent Technically Speaking articles, you’ll know that we’ve identified significant oversold conditions and historical all-time lows found in key oscillators.
But buyers have failed to show up and support Bitcoin in any meaningful way.
It’s an extremely volatile area and one that should be watched very closely.
Sometimes the best thing to do is the hardest thing to do: wait and watch. 🐳
Let’s get one thing straight right away: there’s a stupid amount of chart patterns in technical analysis. A stupid amount. Japanese Candlesticks have over 200+ patterns – that’s just candlesticks.
And then you get into other chart patterns that require gaps or certain geometric formations like diamonds, triangles, or rectangles. Hell, there’s a whole encyclopedia of chart patterns (Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns) by Thomas Bulkowski that is almost 1,000 pages long and highlights 60-ish various patterns – not including all the subpatterns!
Bullets From The Day:
🎉 Crypto exchange FTX ($FTT.X) is getting some nice quality of life upgrades and enhancements next month. Lower latency APIs, new order matching, a doubling of order throughput and a 50% reduction in order latency are just some of the changes coming around November 21, 2022. Sam Bankman-Fried’s Twitter thread has more info
💩 After a failed and humiliating legal oops with his attempt to sue YouTuber Atzoy, BitBoy has called more attention to himself. This time, BitBoy accuses former SEC employee William Hinman of accepting bribes. After being accused to shilling and participating in multiple pamp and damps in the cryptospace, BitBoy certainly isn’t doing himself any favors calling attention to himself. Finbold has the full story
🤦 Ouch, Decentraland ($MANA.X), just ouch. $1.3 billion, and your daily active users are… 38. You would think that a gaming world worth nearly $1.3 billion would have a lot of daily active players/users, right? Final Fantasy XIV supports an active daily player base of 1.15 million, World of Warcraft also 1.15 million, Old School Runescape 1.38 million, and so forth. But 38? Big off. Not exactly a resounding victory for the metaverse if that’s the best Decentraland can do. Read the sad state of metaverse from CoinDesk
Links That Don't Suck:
Links That Don’t Suck:
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