Your bearish thesis overlooks the most important bearish fact, announced by UPST itself: the projected 1Q25 revenue and profit are both LOWER sequentially, i.e. compared to 4Q24 ($200 mln projected vs $219 mln realized, a $20 mln loss projected). This earnings-generation weakness - in an improving environment, that is - shows unequivocally UPST's inability to grow in a stable and profitable way. The CEO paints a unreal picture ("we were at a whisker of profitability"), contradicted by hard evidence. For instance, GAAP profitability is projected not for the next quarter or two - as one would expect if the business was really so close to profitability as the CEO claims -, but at the best at year-end. That's the reality. But analysts are biased: they cheer UPST results not because they were great, but because they were less dismal than anticipated. This is a well-known syndrom of overlooking reality.