Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood Says Tie-Up With Kalshi Hinges On ‘Wisdom of the Crowds’

• Ark Invest said on Friday that it is using Kalshi prediction market data as a macro research tool, rather than for trading, to track market expectations.
• Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood and Director of Research Nick Grous said prediction markets captured the “wisdom of the crowd,” offering insights beyond traditional economic models.
• The update comes as Kalshi secured key legal wins in the U.S., reinforcing its position as a federally regulated prediction market platform.

Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood said on Friday that the firm was leveraging data from Kalshi’s prediction markets to refine its macro research, as Cathie Wood bets that “wisdom of the crowd” signals could reshape investing strategies and revive active management.

In the latest episode of “In the Know,” released on Friday, Cathie Wood spoke with Nick Grous, Director of Research at Ark Invest, about how the firm was using prediction markets to inform its analysis of economic and market-moving events.

“Right now, we’re not participating in these markets. We’re using them as data insights,” Grous said, emphasizing that the firm was not trading on Kalshi but using it to track expectations.

The collaboration with Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market platform, will enable Cathie Wood’s investment firm to monitor how market participants price outcomes across macroeconomic and industry-specific events. Grous described the approach as tapping into the “wisdom of the crowd,” offering an additional layer of insight alongside traditional models.

Wood said the use of prediction markets could have broader implications for investing strategies. “This could be the beginning of a resurgence in active equity management,” she said, noting that increased visibility into event-driven outcomes may shift attention away from passive investing.

Ark Invest and Kalshi announced a collaboration last month. 

ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB), which has direct exposure to Bitcoin (BTC), closed at over $24 on Friday. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around ARKB dropped to ‘bearish’ from the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter around it dropped to ‘low’ from ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Kalshi Secures Regulatory Wins In The US

Earlier this week, Kalshi secured a significant legal victory after the US Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit ruled that New Jersey could not enforce its state gambling laws against the platform. The court held that Kalshi’s event contracts fall under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), marking the first federal appellate decision on the classification of such products.

The ruling effectively reinforced Kalshi’s position as a regulated prediction market operator at the federal level, with CEO Tarek Mansour calling it “a big win for the industry.”

Additionally, Kalshi received relief in a criminal case in Arizona on Saturday, where proceedings were paused at the CFTC's urging, further highlighting ongoing regulatory debate around prediction markets in the US.

Read also: Bitcoin Outpaces Bullion Amid US-Iran De-escalation, Cathie Wood Flags Shift In Market

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