Arthur Hayes Says SpaceX Could Face A Massive Share Supply Shock, Anthropic And OpenAI May Be Next — And Bitcoin And Crypto Will Come Out ‘Glorious’

• Arthur Hayes expects insider share sales to weigh on SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI stocks. 
• He said the result would be a credit squeeze, followed by a central bank bailout that would eventually lift crypto.
• He compared it to Zcash's 2016 launch, when early buyers paid high prices, and most were still underwater.

Arthur Hayes expects "insiders unlock and dump" to flood SpaceX (SPCX) stock, then follow suit with Anthropic (ANT) and OpenAI (OPEAZZX), triggering a credit squeeze that ends in a central bank bailout that lifts crypto and makes Bitcoin (BTC) ‘glorious’ in the long run.

Hayes made the case Thursday in a Substack essay called "D For Dilution." In his essay, he said the three companies' stocks would struggle as locked-up shares held by insiders become free to trade. Then falling share prices will make it harder for the companies to borrow, tightening the dollar liquidity crypto depends on, Hayes wrote. 

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"This presents an issue for the general market environment because the entire AI trade rests on vibes. The vibes surrounding whether you believe the lofty future profitability and ubiquity of AI determine whether you lend money to the industry," Hayes added. 

Hayes compared the setup to Zcash (ZEC) back in 2016. Early adopters bought at high prices with a small amount of the token available, and most are still underwater even as Zcash's market value has grown since. You don't trade the market cap; you trade the price per token," he wrote.

ZEC’s price was up over 2%, trading around $1,318. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around ZEC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, accompanied by ‘normal’ chatter levels over the past day. 

SpaceX Float Keeps Growing

SpaceX's stock price has been relatively stable since its initial public offering, but the number of publicly traded shares has increased by about 50%, Hayes said. He projected that some 8.6 billion additional shares will be available by the end of June 2027. That would increase the float by roughly another 50%, mostly because of the vesting of the shares held by Elon Musk. The rumored combination of SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA) could mean about a 50% dilution for Class A shareholders, Hayes said.

The stock can only be supported with an increase in free cash flow, Hayes said. He also said Musk would have to return that cash through dividends or buybacks. 

Anthropic Faces Steep Dilution Concerns

Anthropic filed its S-1, the registration statement a company submits to U.S. regulators before an IPO, in late October and intends to go public on Nasdaq under the ticker ANT.

An AI agent looked at the filing on his behalf, Hayes said. There's no near-term dividend expectation, he said, and the company will plow its money into about $900 billion of compute commitments. Based on that schedule, Hayes wrote, "it is almost impossible mathematically for the stock price to go up between listing and June 2027."

He figured that the selloff would take about $1.245 trillion in new money to absorb the price if Anthropic is valued at $1.5 trillion at market. Hayes also said investors should think of Anthropic as an oil and gas company rather than a software company, given customers pay for usage and past spending doesn't guarantee future demand. This comes as investors were already pushing ANT's IPO valuation from $ 1.6 trillion to $2 trillion.

Hayes Calls OpenAI 'Worst Of The Bunch'

Hayes said OpenAI "will be the worst of the bunch." Hayes said that OpenAI has a more concentrated customer base and a higher burn rate than Anthropic. He noted reports that the company had cut its fundraising target from $30 billion to $20 billion and its valuation from $1.5 trillion to $1.25 trillion. Hayes believes a future OpenAI IPO would be structured similarly to SpaceX and Anthropic, with a small float and heavy insider sales in the months ahead.

Where Does Crypto Stand?

Companies can't borrow money in the debt markets on their own. They have to be publicly traded, Hayes said. If their shares fall, lenders will demand higher yields. That would eat into those loans, Hayes said, who said bank loans powered the crypto rally that began in August. Last week, the U.S. bank balance sheets contracted, we observed. "This is the transmission channel from AI to crypto." 

His family office, Maelstrom, will stay clear, said Hayes. He believes the central banks will print money once the AI slump turns into a crisis threat. That, he said, "will be glorious for Bitcoin and crypto holders. But be patient."

Bitcoin’s price was up over 3%, trading around $80,300 over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bearish’ zone, while chatter shifted to ‘high’ from ‘normal’ over the past day.

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