Bitcoin $500,000 Forecast Delayed To 2030 As ETFs Become Primary Growth Driver, Says Standard Chartered

• Standard Chartered said that the current bearish outlook in the market is ‘normal’.
• It noted that it’s unlikely that Strategy will have to sell its Bitcoin holdings amid concerns around its mNAV.
• The firm expects smaller digital-asset treasury firms to consolidate rather than sell if their mNAVs fall below 1.0 or 0.5.

Standard Chartered cut its Bitcoin (BTC) forecasts on Tuesday following a nearly 30% drop from the all-time high the asset reached in October.

In its report, the bank claimed that the recent peak, which occurred roughly 18 months after the 2024 halving, has reignited "crypto winter" concerns, but that halving cycles are no longer the primary price driver. Standard Chartered stated that the drop is "normal" when compared to previous drawdowns since U.S. spot ETFs launched.

Instead, the bank expects the next rise to be almost entirely driven by ETF inflows, with corporate Bitcoin digital-asset treasury (DATs) companies' buying "likely over." The bank expects Bitcoin to reach $500,000 by 2030, now, two years later than originally estimated.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $90,878.48, up 0.6% in the last 24 hours. BTC’s retail sentiment continued to be in the ‘neutral’ zone over the past day on Stocktwits. Chatter around the apex cryptocurrency remained at ‘low’ levels.

DAT Success Metrics Have Shifted

Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered Bank said “valuations measured by mNAV no longer support expansion” for DATs. mNAV compares a treasury company’s share price with the market value of the Bitcoin it holds. 

Standard Chartered reported that Strategy’s (MSTR) mNAV has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since 2023. This sparked media speculation that the company may sell some of its Bitcoin holdings, but the bank disagrees. It pointed out that MSTR's average purchase price is around $74,000, indicating that the firm is still comfortably "in the money."

The report also stated that in the previous cycle, Bitcoin traded 22% below Strategy’s average purchase price, and the company did not sell. Using that framework today would imply BTC’s price dipping to around $58,000, which is far below current levels.

The firm expects smaller digital-asset treasury firms to consolidate rather than sell if their mNAVs fall below 1.0 or 0.5.

MSTR’s stock edged 0.2% higher in morning trade, with retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the company falling to ‘bearish’ from ‘bullish’ territory over the past day.

ETFs Will Drive The Bitcoin Cycle

With DAT buying decreasing, Standard Chartered sees ETF demand as "the only remaining leg" supporting long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin. Kendrick stated that ETF inflows could reach 200,000 BTC per quarter, but this is significantly lower than the combined ETF and corporate buying around the 2024 US election.

Bitcoin’s price has dipped 1.6% this year, while MSTR’s stock has fallen more than 37%. 

Read also: Crypto Sees ‘Cooling Period’ – BTC, ETH Hold Weekly Gains While Altcoins Lose Steam

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