Bitcoin’s Wild Futures Surge To 2026 Highs As Analysts Say Bear Market May Be Ending Soon — But The Recovery Is Running On Leverage

• Analyst Checkonchain said that Bitcoin may be at the bottom of a bear market after a 52% correction in February.
• 24.6% of Realized Cap now sits between $54,000–$75000, close to the 25% level that marked Bitcoin bottoms in 2018 and 2022, according to a report by Checkonchain.
• Analysts cautioned that the recovery is increasingly driven by leveraged futures activity and rising open interest.

Bitcoin (BTC) is possibly approaching the end of its bear market, according to a new report from Checkonchain and Unchained, but analysts warn that the recent recovery is increasingly driven by leveraged futures positioning rather than spot demand.

In The Bitcoin Checkpoint, Edition 02, Checkonchain co-founder James Check wrote that the February 6, 2026, sell-off to $60,000 — a 52% drawdown from October's $126,000 all-time high — was the "price-pain" capitulation of this cycle. The move resulted in $2.1 billion in single-day realized losses, a record high, and sent the weekly RSI to all-time lows.

The drop sent a jolt of panic through the market, with analysts saying their inboxes were flooded with anxious messages from clients. They compared the moment to June 2022, when enough top buyers threw in the towel and exited at a loss to mark a major regime shift. Historically, once this kind of capitulation occurs, the steepest declines are already over. What typically follows is several months of choppy, sideways price action,  a "time-pain" phase that wears down the last of the sellers before a real recovery begins.

The report estimated 1.988 million BTC has been rotating from top buyers above $80,000 into new hands in the $60,000-$80,000 range year-to-date. The report also stated that 24.6% of the Realized Cap is now between $54,000 and $75,000, close to the 25% level that has historically marked bottoms in 2018 and 2022. 

Checkonchain’s Mean Reversion Index, which combines nine valuation models, hit a Q10 reading at the lows – historically a 90% probability bottom signal.

The report also argued that the True Market Mean, around $78,000, is now a better proxy for the average investor cost basis than the Realized Price at $54,000, potentially breaking the traditional four-year cycle mental model.

Bitcoin's price was trading at $80,407, up 0.7% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter dropped to ‘normal’ from ‘high’ levels over the past day. 

Other analysts say caution is called for. CryptoQuant contributor Burak Kesmeci noted that $88,000 as a key resistance level for now. He wrote that only a settlement above it would turn all short-term cohorts positive and signal “that would be the real signal of a trend reversal.” 

Bitcoin Open Interest Hits 2026 Peak

Separately, analyst Darkfost noted that Bitcoin Open Interest has just seen its largest increase of 2026, surpassing levels seen during all-time high formation, with funding rates remaining deeply negative. He added that “This environment stands in sharp contrast to the conditions seen earlier this year and suggests that optimism is slowly returning to the market, encouraging traders to increase their exposure to risk once again.”

While funding rates have remained mostly negative in recent weeks, the analyst said, traders are returning to derivatives markets and taking on more leveraged exposure, a sign that optimism is slowly returning. Binance (BNB) continues to lead in futures activity with approximately 34% market share, while Gate.io (GT) and Bybit are also experiencing major growth in open interest. 

But the analyst cautioned that the upsurge in leverage also means the market is more fragile, with highly leveraged positions potentially leading to sharp liquidations and exacerbating volatility if momentum turns.

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