Bitcoin Is Repeating Its 2023 Playbook, Says Analyst — But Glassnode Spots A $14B Liquidity Drain

• Analyst Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin was finding support at the 200-Day MA.
• According to him, this was a reversal of "might go super fast" because of the short positions waiting to be cleared.
• Glassnode said two large wallet groups have started buying, and the August trend change holds as long as Bitcoin stays above its June low of $58,500.

Bitcoin (BTC) prices held around $73,500 early Thursday, with analyst Michaël van de Poppe saying that the top cryptocurrency has been "copy/pasting the exact price action from 2023" - with the token holding near its 200-day moving average.

MN Fund Founder van de Poppe said that Bitcoin had made a strong move up as "the first step into the bull cycle." It followed that with "another sweep higher, with a clear higher high," he said. 

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According to him, Bitcoin was sweeping its recent low and "finding support at the 200-Day MA." He expected any recovery to be quick, saying, "Once we're seeing a reversal, it might go super fast, as there's a ton of short liquidity ready to be pushed out of the market."

Bitcoin's price was flat over the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC moved to 'bearish' from 'extremely bearish' zones, while chatter around it stayed at 'normal' levels over the past day.

Glassnode Sees Shorts Building

Glassnode's weekly report backed part of that view, pointing that open interest (OI) has rebuilt to its September high even as Bitcoin fell about 15%, suggesting traders have added short positions into the decline, the report said. If the price turned higher, those shorts would have to be bought back, Glassnode added.

Still, the report found little fresh money coming in. Bitcoin slipped below $75,600, the average price paid by recent buyers. Only about 35% of short-term holder coins were now in profit. Stablecoin supply fell a little over $14 billion over 30 days, the fastest drop since June 2022. 

Plus, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also saw $1.6 billion in net outflows over 20 sessions, and the Coinbase Premium stayed negative, a sign of weak U.S. demand, according to the report.

There were, however, some positives. Two large wallet groups, holding 100 to 10,000 BTC, have started buying, Glassnode said. It added that the trend change from August holds as long as Bitcoin stays above its June low of $58,500.

Glassnode also said two large wallet groups, holding 100 to 10,000 BTC, have started buying. It added that the trend change from August holds as long as Bitcoin stays above its June low of $58,500.

Bitcoin Underperforms Nasdaq Gains

Bitfinex analysts said in their weekly Bitfinex Alpha report that Bitcoin has been soaking up more of the losses of the Nasdaq 100 than the gains. Bitcoin, however, has only kept up with 58% of the index's gains since its Oct. 6 peak, but has kept pace with 91% of its drops. They were 23% and 129% before the peak.

Buying by ETFs and corporate treasuries has stopped dead in its tracks, the analysts said. So no one can convert stock gains into bitcoin. Leveraged bullish futures bets, in contrast, breeze through equity drops without a hitch.

Traders still have to pay to remain long, the report said. The funding rates on perpetual futures have been close to the 11% annual average. The funding rates are the fees that the bullish traders pay to keep their positions open. Analysts said it makes the market vulnerable to forced selling.

Also, Bitcoin holders are selling at a net loss for 12 days straight now, totaling about 172,700 BTC. Bitfinex analyst said the rate still signals a correction and not a deeper sell-off. 

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