21Shares Sees Bitcoin Recovering To $100,000 By Year-End As Four-Year Cycle Is Not Dead But Has Evolved

• Bitcoin has fallen roughly 52% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000, but the decline remains far less severe than previous bear-market cycles, according to 21Shares.
• The cryptocurrency has held above its aggregate cost basis of about $54,000, avoiding the deep capitulation seen in earlier downturns.
• 21Shares said growing institutional ownership and exchange-traded fund inflows have made the market more resilient, though the traditional four-year halving cycle remains in place.

Bitcoin (BTC) is at a roughly 52% decline from its October 2025 peak, which fueled debate over whether the cryptocurrency's traditional four-year cycle has broken down, but 21Shares said the pattern remains largely intact even as market structure continues to evolve.

In its June State of Crypto report released on Wednesday, the asset manager with over $11 billion in assets under management (AUM), noted the fall of Bitcoin’s price to $63,000 by mid-June from its peak in October last year remained considerably smaller than the 80% or greater declines that characterized previous bear markets.

According to the report, one key difference was that Bitcoin remained above its aggregate cost basis of roughly $54,000. In prior cycles, the cryptocurrency typically fell below this level during periods of capitulation, reflecting widespread investor losses and forced selling.

A More Mature Market

21Shares attributed the milder downturn in part to the growing role of institutional investors, particularly through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The firm said these investors had introduced more stable capital flows and reduced some of the extreme volatility that defined earlier market cycles.

As a result, Bitcoin's four-year post-halving pattern evolved rather than disappeared. The report argued that while institutional participation had changed the character of the cycle, it had not eliminated the broader rhythm of expansion and contraction that historically followed Bitcoin halvings.

Recovery, Not New Highs

Looking ahead, 21Shares' base-case scenario called for Bitcoin to recover toward $100,000 by the end of the year rather than immediately surpassing its previous record high.

The firm also pointed to continued growth in wallet adoption and network participation as signs that underlying demand remains healthy despite recent price weakness, suggesting the current downturn resembles a maturation phase rather than a breakdown of Bitcoin's long-standing market cycle.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $61,573, down over 1% during the past 24 hours. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘neutral’ zone, while chatter around it stayed in the ‘low’ levels over the past day.

Read also: MSTR Stock Slumps To Two-Year Low As Analysts Urge Michael Saylor To Pause Bitcoin Buying

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