Cerebras IPO Blew Past Every Estimate — Even Arthur Hayes Hyperliquid Grey Market Call

• Arthur Hayes used Hyperliquid’s grey market perpetual contracts ahead of the debut to estimate where CBRS might open, with traders pricing in a smaller rally near $277.
• Cerebras opened at $350 on Nasdaq, marking an 89% jump from its $185 IPO price and becoming the largest U.S. tech IPO since Uber in 2019.
• Cerebras raised $5.55 billion in the offering after investor demand reportedly exceeded 20 times the available share allocation.

Nvidia (NVDA) rival Cerebras (CBRS) debuted on the Nasdaq Thursday morning at an 89% premium to its IPO price before briefly surging past $370 in afternoon trade, capping off the largest U.S. tech listing since Uber’s (UBER) 2019 debut.

Hyperliquid (HYPE) traders, including Maelstrom chief investment officer Arthur Hayes, saw the pop coming. In a post on X, just hours prior to the initial public offering (IPO), Hayes told followers he checked the decentralized exchange to estimate where CBRS might begin trading after pricing its IPO at $185 per share. 

The market on Hyperliquid implied a roughly 50% jump, pointing to an opening near $277. Instead, Cerebras opened at $350, far above even bullish crypto market expectations.

CBRS’ stock hit a high of $386, before paring gains to trade at around $300 at the time of writing. Retail traders on Stocktwits debated whether it was still worth it to pick up more shares after the rally, or wait it out a couple of days.

Hyperliquid Traders Saw The Rally Coming

Hyperliquid, a decentralized perpetual futures exchange, has increasingly become a venue for traders looking to speculate on high-profile IPOs before they begin trading on traditional exchanges. The exchange lists pre-market perpetual contracts that allow traders to bet on where stocks may open without needing IPO allocations or brokerage access.

In Cerebras’ case, traders correctly anticipated strong upside but underestimated the scale of institutional demand.

Cerebras IPO Demand Overwhelmed Expectations

Cerebras raised $5.55 billion in the offering, making it the largest tech IPO of 2026 so far. The deal reportedly attracted demand exceeding 20 times the available shares, forcing underwriters including Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Barclays and UBS to raise the pricing range twice before trading began.

The company’s story has shifted dramatically since first filing to go public in September 2024. Cerebras initially faced scrutiny over its reliance on a UAE-based customer that accounted for roughly 85% of revenue at the time. The company refiled in April 2026 and disclosed a multibillion-dollar compute agreement with OpenAI alongside a partnership with Amazon Web Services. The UAE customer base still represented about 62% of revenue.

AI Chip Race, Nvidia Competition Fuels Investor Frenzy

Cerebras markets a specialized AI processor called the Wafer-Scale Engine, which the company says is substantially larger than Nvidia’s  leading GPUs and capable of delivering faster inference performance.

CEO Andrew Feldman described the chip on CNBC Thursday morning as “a chip the size of a dinner plate,” adding larger processors allow AI systems to process information more efficiently.

At $350 per share, Cerebras carried a fully diluted valuation of roughly $56.4 billion. Feldman’s stake alone was worth approximately $1.9 billion.

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