Toontje1
$GLSI
My estimate: we’re likely around 700-800 patients currently randomized in the blinded arm, with roughly 60-65 new patient-years being added each month at the current pace. At a blended event rate (mixing the ~4%/year placebo arm and the much lower GP2 arm), that works out to approximately 1.5 new recurrence events per month — putting us somewhere in the 16-20 events range right now.
If that trajectory holds, my expectation is a Q1-Q2 2027 interim analysis, hopefully landing around a 22-6 split (placebo-GP2). I believe 22-6 would be strong enough to trigger an early stop for efficacy — though worth flagging that under a standard O’Brien-Fleming boundary at the 28-event look, 22-6 (~HR 0.27, p≈0.0025) sits right at the edge of what’s typically required, not comfortably above it. A slightly wider split (e.g., 23-5 or better) would make an early stop much more likely.”
2
18
