Galaxy Research Head Says CLARITY Act Could Reach President Trump’s Desk By August

• Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said the CLARITY Act has a 75% chance of becoming law in 2026 after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee.
• Thorn outlined a timeline pointing to a potential Trump signature by early August, warning Congress has only nine weeks of Senate floor time before the August recess.
• Solana Policy Institute President Kristin Smith offered a more cautious 60% probability of passage, saying “a lot can go wrong” despite growing bipartisan momentum.

Galaxy Digital's (GLXY) Head of Research Alex Thorn said on Saturday that the CLARITY Act had a 75% chance of becoming law in 2026 after the bill cleared the Senate Banking Committee in a bipartisan 15-9 vote on Thursday.

Writing in Galaxy Research’s weekly brief, Thorn said negotiations during the committee markup secured support from Senators Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) and Angela Alsobrooks (D-MD), reinforcing bipartisan backing for the crypto market structure bill as it advances toward a Senate floor vote. He described the hearing as the closest thing to “fireworks” a Senate committee vote can produce, noting that many in the crypto policy community had expected the process to devolve into a purely partisan outcome in the 24 hours leading up to the vote.

Thorn outlined a timeline pointing to a potential presidential signing during the week of August 3, with Senate floor debate expected to begin in mid-June and House-Senate reconciliation potentially concluding by late July. He warned that Congress has only nine weeks of Senate floor time before the August 10 recess, after which substantive legislation rarely advances during a midterm election cycle.

Thorn also compared the combined significance of the CLARITY Act and last year’s GENIUS Act to the Securities Act of 1933 and Exchange Act of 1934, calling them the type of regulatory framework that “laid the foundation for 100 years of US capital markets dominance.”

Senate Timeline Tightens For Crypto Market Structure Bill

Solana (SOL) Policy Institute President Kristin Smith offered a more cautious read in an interview with Paul Barron on Friday, putting the probability of passage at 60%. "In theory, we have everything we need," she said. "But there's a lot that can go wrong,” she said.

When Barron suggested that decentralized finance (DeFi) protections could be used as a "sacrificial lamb" in late-stage deal-making, Smith pushed back, arguing that centralized exchanges like Coinbase (COIN) and Kraken saw themselves as "gateways for DeFi" rather than replacements for it. 

DeFi Protections Remain Key Negotiation Point

Additionally, a16z crypto general counsel Miles Jennings framed Thursday's vote in sharper terms, calling the previous US regulatory approach to crypto "an abject failure" and positioning CLARITY as the correction.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price was trading around $78,094, down more than 1% over the past 24 hours, as investors continued watching US crypto legislation for signs of regulatory clarity and broader institutional adoption. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Prediction market Polymarket also placed the odds of the CLARITY Act being signed into law in 2026 at 68%, up sharply from 46% at the start of May, though still below Thorn’s 75% estimate.

Read also: AI Is Stealing Crypto's Thunder, Says Galaxy CEO Mike Novogratz, But He's Sticking With A $100K Bitcoin Call

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