Nvidia Earnings Could Decide Bitcoin’s Next Move After ETF Selling Wave, Says Wintermute

• Wintermute said on Tuesday that Nvidia’s earnings may serve as a near-term catalyst for crypto markets. 
• It stated Bitcoin’s recent rally was largely driven by leverage and short covering rather than sustained spot demand.
• The firm added that a break below Bitcoin’s $75,000 support level could open the door to a move into the low $70,000 range.

Nvidia (NVDA) earnings on Wednesday could decide which way Bitcoin’s (BTC) price moves next, Wintermute said on Tuesday in its latest market update.

It stated that Nvidia’s earnings report tomorrow, scheduled for after the bell, could determine whether Bitcoin manages to hold its current support zone between $76,000 and $78,000. The Magnificent 7 tech giant is expected to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.77 on $79 billion in revenue.

“A hold through Nvidia earnings rebuilds some confidence,” Wintermute wrote. “But a break of $75k with funding resetting and ETF flows negative opens up the low $70s pretty quickly.”

Bitcoin’s price edged 0.3% higher in afternoon trade to around $76,800, still struggling to reclaim the $77,000 level. Retail sentiment around the apex cryptocurrency on Stocktwits trended in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter.

Meanwhile, NVDA’s stock edged 0.5% higher in afternoon trade, despite weakness in the broader market. Retail sentiment around the Jensen Huang-led firm on Stocktwits trended in ‘extremely bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter. NVDA was also among the top trending tickers on the platform at the time of writing.

Bitcoin Fails To Reclaim Key Technical Levels

Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price has fallen 5.7% after briefly climbing above $82,000 following momentum tied to the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act. Wintermute stated that the apex cryptocurrency’s failed breakout above its 200-day moving average near $82,200 reinforced concerns that the rally lacked strong spot demand.

The firm noted that Bitcoin has now been rejected at that level five separate times this month, suggesting the earlier rally was largely driven by leverage and short covering rather than sustained institutional buying.

Why Is Bitcoin Struggling?

Wintermute noted that spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded approximately $1 billion in net outflows last week, snapping a six-week streak of inflows. It stated that the institutions were “selling into strength,” with the seven-day moving average of ETF netflows dropping to negative $88 million per day, the weakest level since mid-February. 

“When leverage is the marginal buyer, the unwind is fast,” Wintermute said.

It added that last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation report triggered a rapid repricing across financial markets, echoing the same sentiment as 10x Research earlier this week. As a result, fed funds futures now imply a 44% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike by December, compared with roughly 22% a week earlier. “The conversation went from ‘when do they cut’ to ‘do they hike’ in five trading days,” Wintermute wrote.

The firm stated that cryptocurrencies were among the hardest-hit risk assets during the shift, with Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH) both underperforming equities.

Read also: SpaceX, Palantir, Bitcoin Are Pricing The Same War — Just From Different Sides, According To 10x Research

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com