SpaceX, Palantir, Bitcoin Are Pricing The Same War — Just From Different Sides, According To 10x Research

• 10x Research said Palantir’s rapid growth has been fueled by rising defense spending and the Pentagon's expanded adoption of its AI systems.
• It added that SpaceX is the opposite end of the spectrum, building infrastructure that has become increasingly important during geopolitical conflicts and internet disruptions.
• The firm stated Bitcoin is a neutral financial settlement layer that benefits whether state power strengthens or decentralized infrastructure expands.

Palantir (PLTR), SpaceX, and Bitcoin (BTC) may look like unrelated trades, but they are all different bets on the same geopolitical shift reshaping markets, 10x Research said on Tuesday. 

“Bitcoin, SpaceX, Palantir. Three assets. One war,” the firm wrote in a post on X. According to the Markus Thielen-led research company, each asset represents a different layer of the global fight over state power. 

It stated that Palantir is building the infrastructure that makes states more powerful, while SpaceX is building infrastructure that makes them less powerful. “Bitcoin is the financial layer that makes it all irreversible,” the firm wrote.

Bitcoin’s price traded flat in the last 24 hours, struggling to hold above $77,000. Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around the apex cryptocurrency trended in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day. Chatter remained at ‘normal’ levels. 

Palantir Emerges As A Defense AI Giant

10x Research described Palantir as “the infrastructure that makes states more powerful,” pointing to the company’s growing role in surveillance, targeting and military intelligence systems.

The company has become one of the largest beneficiaries of rising defense spending and AI adoption within government agencies. Earlier this year, the Pentagon expanded deployment of Palantir’s Maven Smart System, an AI-driven military targeting platform that has become central to modern battlefield operations.

In the first quarter (Q1) of 2026, Palantir reported that government revenue grew 84% year-over-year. The firm closed 206 deals valued at $1 million or more in the quarter, including 72 deals exceeding $5 million.

PLTR’s stock edged 0.21% lower in pre-market trade on Tuesday amid broader weakness in the equity market. Retail sentiment around the company on Stocktwits trended in ‘bullish’ territory, accompanied by ‘normal’ levels of chatter.

 

SpaceX Bets On Infrastructure Beyond Governments

10x Research positioned SpaceX on the opposite side of the same geopolitical equation. It pointed to “unjammable comms, private compute, jurisdiction-free money” as themes underpinning the SpaceX trade.

The firm also pegged SpaceX's valuation near Bitcoin’s market capitalization. It claimed SpaceX’s expected IPO pricing would value the company around $1.75 trillion, which is more than Bitcoin’s market value of around $1.6 trillion. According to reports, its Starlink initiative, with over 9 million paying subscribers, is projected to generate $15 to $16 billion in 2025 revenue, driving the premium valuation. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around SpaceX – which is not a listed stock yet – trended in ‘extremely bullish’ territory, alongside ‘extremely high’ levels of chatter.

Bitcoin Sits Between Both Systems

According to 10x Research, Bitcoin functions differently from both Palantir and SpaceX because it does not depend on a specific geopolitical outcome. Instead, the firm expects Bitcoin to operate as neutral financial infrastructure.

In one scenario, governments expand surveillance and control, increasing demand for censorship-resistant financial systems. In another, decentralized communications networks and private infrastructure become more dominant, creating an ecosystem naturally aligned with borderless digital money. Either way, 10x Research stated that Bitcoin is likely to benefit.

According to Ark Invest, Bitcoin is slated to reach a market capitalization of $16 trillion by 2030, a ten-fold increase from where its valuation currently sits. The uptick would be driven by accelerating institutional adoption, along with sovereign entities building reserve positions, the firm said.

Read also: Crypto Bloodbath – $800M Wiped Out After Bitcoin Hits Month-Low, Ethereum Longs Face $300M Flush

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