$760 Million Oil Wager Front-Runs Hormuz Shock, Sparks Market Manipulation Concerns

• FatMan, a crypto researcher associated with TerraLuna's investigation, raised concerns about insider trading after $760 million in oil trades were executed minutes before the Hormuz reopening announcement.
• He claimed “Trump insiders” made about $85 million in a day and $3.9 billion overall, though the claims remain unverified.
• As global tensions rose throughout the first weekend of March, HYPE rose above $30.

Traders profited from allegedly well-timed oil bets on Saturday, according to a crypto investigator, raising fresh concerns over potential insider activity in the market.

Pseudonymous crypto researcher FatMan from the Terra Research Forum, who gained prominence in 2022 for investigating the collapse of the Terra ecosystem, claimed on X that “Trump insiders made about $85 million today, and roughly $3.9 billion so far in total,” referring to what he described as insider trading tied to major geopolitical announcements. 

He added that the $3.9 billion figure, when compared to roughly $14 trillion held in index funds, would amount to about 0.03%, or “$30 for every $100,000 anyone holds in stocks,” framing it as a cost borne by broader market participants. 

The researcher cited data from Unusual Whales, a market data platform, showing that investors sold a combined 7,990 lots of Brent crude futures, worth roughly $760 million, around 20 minutes before the announcement that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen to commercial vessels. 

Reuters reported that these transactions had occurred between 12:24 GMT and 12:25 GMT (8:24 am to 8:25 am ET), shortly before Iran’s foreign minister confirmed the reopening. The move was followed by a sharp decline in oil prices, with Brent crude falling as much as 10% to 11% in the minutes after the announcement.

Traders Turn To Hyperliquid For Weekend Oil Trades

Traders started using Hyperliquid (HYPE) as a 24/7, high-leverage, crypto-native tool to bet on oil prices, especially during times of political unrest like the Iran-Israel war, when regular markets are closed on weekends. 

Trading on the exchange picked up a lot over the first weekend of March as tensions shook up global markets.This helped push HYPE over $30. As of writing, Hyperliquid’s price was trading at around $44, down 0.2% over the past day. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around HYPE remained in the ‘bullish’ territory, while chatter remained at ‘high’ levels over the past day. 

Prediction Markets Trade Raise Concerns Amid Insider Trading 

The incident echoes growing concerns over potential market manipulation in both traditional futures and prediction markets ahead of major political and geopolitical events. Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi have faced repeated scrutiny for suspiciously timed bets. 

On Polymarket, traders reportedly earned hundreds of thousands, and in some cases over $1 million, by correctly predicting outcomes such as Venezuelan President Maduro’s arrest, Ayatollah Khamenei’s removal, and key Iran-related developments. Similar patterns appeared on Kalshi. 

Read also: ETH Climbs Rapidly On Hormuz Reopening, Ethereum Whale ‘Buying Groceries’ Sparks Buzz

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