VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

$VTI NOV20 385C · still actionable Zone: $370.40 to $375.62 Invalidation: close under $372.18 Objectives: $379.15, then $385.12 The math: up 1.6% to the first objective and 3.2% to the second, against 0.2% risk on the invalidation, better than 14 to 1 to the second. Dear friend, picture the whole market in one basket, thousands of companies moving together, and that basket just slipped back to where buyers stepped in last week. VTI closed Friday at 373 dollars and 1 cent after touching 372 dollars and 18 cents and holding there. This is a swing, and what that means is simple. You are betting that Friday low holds, with room back toward 379 dollars and 15 cents first, then toward the 385 dollar and 12 cent high from August, while a close under the Friday low says the floor gave way and you step aside. P.S. Watch 374 dollars and 90 cents, the close on Thursday. A close over it would show buyers lifting price off the low instead of only defending it.

$VTI NOV20 385C · still actionable Zone: $372.96 to $378.22 Invalidation: close under $372.18 Objectives: $379.15, then $385.12 The math: up 0.9% to the first objective and 2.5% to the second, against 0.9% risk on the invalidation, about 2.8 to 1 to the second Dear friend, picture the whole American stock market packed into one basket, and that basket just bounced off the floor it found last Friday. VTI closed Monday at 375 dollars and 59 cents, up 0.7 percent after touching 373 dollars and 90 cents, which means buyers stepped in where they stepped in last week and lifted price back up. This is a swing, and if that floor near 372 dollars and 18 cents holds, the walk back runs first to 379 dollars and 15 cents, then toward the August high at 385 dollars and 12 cents, while a close under that floor says the bounce failed and you step aside. P.S. Watch 376 dollars and 85 cents, the Monday high. A close over it would show buyers pressing onward.

$VTI NOV20 385C · still actionable Zone: $370.40 to $375.62 Invalidation: close under $372.18 Objectives: $379.15, then $385.12 The math: up 1.6% to the first objective and 3.2% to the second, against 0.2% risk on the invalidation, better than 14 to 1 to the second. Dear friend, picture one basket holding thousands of American companies, and that basket just eased back to 373 dollars and 1 cent after a soft Friday. This is a swing call, and the idea is simple. Friday low at 372 dollars and 18 cents is the floor, and if buyers hold that floor, the basket has a clear path back to 379 dollars and 15 cents, then to the August high at 385 dollars and 12 cents. A close under that floor says the pullback is turning into something weaker, so you know where you are wrong before Monday even opens. P.S. VTI is still up about 12% on the year, so this reads as a pullback inside a strong year rather than a broken trend.