Retail Traders Are Cautiously Optimistic On CLARITY Act — But 30% Say Nothing Gets Done

• Nearly half of respondents in a Stocktwits poll believe the legislation will pass both chambers of Congress this year.
• About one-third of retail traders surveyed said they do not expect meaningful crypto legislation to become law in 2026.
• Banking industry groups are lobbying lawmakers to tighten stablecoin yield provisions in the latest draft of the bill.

The Senate Banking Committee is expected to hold its CLARITY Act hearing on Thursday, with most retail traders expecting the bill to fly through the Senate and the House. However, some believe “nothing meaningful” is going to get done in 2026 even if the bill is advanced.

An ongoing Stocktwits poll showed that 49% of 3,700 respondents believe the CLARITY Act will pass both chambers this year, despite the bill being in limbo since January. Lawmakers, crypto firms, and banking lobby groups have been debating over the clauses in the CLARITY Act, especially those pertaining to stablecoin yield.

A retail trader on Stocktwits stated that there was “zero” chance of the CLARITY Act passing given how the vote to confirm Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair played out. He is slated to take on his new position on Thursday with current Fed chair Jerome Powell stepping down.

Ethics Clause Remains The Central Obstacle

Around 14% of the respondents expect the Senate to advance the bill but see the House stalling. A smaller 7% think the Senate Banking Committee advances the bill but the full Senate punts, suggesting some skepticism that momentum at the committee level translates to a floor vote.

Both scenarios are possible given that the Democrats have repeatedly stated they will not pass the bill if it does not have an ethics clause restricting members of Congress, senior administration officials, presidents or vice presidents from trading in the cryptocurrency market.

Retail Traders Divided On Crypto Bill Outlook

Around one-third of the respondents said they expect “nothing meaningful” to get done in 2026 despite the broad industry enthusiasm surrounding the markup.

The landscape remains uncertain ahead of the markup with the American Bankers Association (ABA) members on Tuesday reportedly sending over 8,000 letters to Senate offices, urging lawmakers to tighten stablecoin yield restrictions in the CLARITY Act ahead of the markup. The move came after a 309-page draft of the bill was made public on Monday night. 

Meanwhile, Coinbase (COIN) CEO Brian Armstrong said he is "confident" a markup happens in May and forecast a Senate floor vote in early summer. If the CLARITY Act passes the Senate, it would advance to reconciliation with House and other committee versions before presidential signature.

Crypto Stocks Fall Ahead Of CLARITY Act Markup Amid PPI Shock

COIN’s stock fell 4.5% in morning trade on Wednesday amid broader weakness in the cryptocurrency and equity markets after the annual spike in wholesale inflation was reported to be the highest in four years and the monthly increase was triple what Wall Street expected.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around COIN’s stock trended in ‘bullish’ territory over the past day, accompanied by ‘high’ levels of chatter. 

Coinbase has a 50/50 revenue sharing agreement with Circle Internet Group (CRCL) for the USDC (USDC) stablecoin. The language in the CLARITY Act could impact how both companies offer rewards and interest on stablecoin deposits, as well as stablecoin activity.

CRCL’s stock fell around 2.8% in morning trade, with retail sentiment also trending in the ‘bullish’ zone over the past day. Chatter stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels. Meanwhile, sentiment around its USDC stablecoin trended in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day.

Read also: Bitcoin Slips Below $80K After PPI Data Triples Forecast, Adding To Inflation Fears

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