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Zcash (ZEC) jumped past Hyperliquid (HYPE) on Sunday to become the ninth-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, as a month-long rally in the privacy token showed no signs of slowing.
CoinGecko data showed that ZEC’s market cap soared to around $19.80 billion, surpassing HYPE’s $19.36 billion. Zcash’s price was up over 16% during the past 24 hours, trading at $1,170. On Stocktwits, the retail sentiment around ZEC remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ zone, while chatter around it stayed at ‘extremely high’ levels over the past day. The flip completed a breakout that began on Friday when ZEC topped $1,000 for the first time in a decade.
But even with the recent rally, ZEC remained far below its all-time high of $3,191, which it reached in October 2016. The gap, hence, raises a question not about whether ZEC can rise in price but whether it can hold the rally.
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Koyfin data suggested that the move was stretched. ZEC was trading at more than 2.5 times its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $449.40. The 200-day average was a common gauge of an asset's long-term trend, and a gap this wide above it usually signals a rally that has run ahead of itself.
Open interest (OI) in ZEC perpetuals — the total value of open leveraged bets- hit a record high of roughly $2.4 billion on Friday, according to CoinGlass data. Open interest has tracked price almost exactly throughout the rally, a sign that new leveraged positions rather than spot buying alone have been driving the move.
The liquidation data also showed how leverage snowballed. CoinGlass showed a first wave of short liquidations of $25 million to $30 million a day around August 19 to 22, when the rally began to gain pace, followed by another batch of about $34 million in forced short closures in the latest session as ZEC pushed through $1,000. Each round of short covering took the price higher and attracted more leveraged longs behind it.
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ZEC’s 14-day relative strength index (RSI) was 82.18. RSI measures the speed of recent price moves on a scale of 0 to 100, with readings above 70 considered ‘overbought.’ ZEC at 82 was far above that line, indicating strong momentum but also a rally that is susceptible to a pullback.
Leverage at a record, the same crowding that squeezed shorts on the way up could turn just as fast. CoinGlass data showed the biggest single liquidation event of the year wasn’t a short squeeze but rather a long wipeout of about $67.6 million in early June as ZEC fell to around $380 after the Orchard vulnerability announcement. With open interest at an all-time high and the RSI overbought, a sharp reversal could trigger a similar cascade of long liquidations.
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One Stocktwits user said this was "no ordinary short squeeze," noting that "millions of dollars [were] being liquidated every hour as it [moved] higher," and that those liquidations "equate to buys." The user added that breaking $1,000 dissolved “any amount of near-term resistance, especially the psychological barrier that many thought it would face," calling the setup "a rare opportunity to make a ton of money on a free ride courtesy of overextended shorts."
For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.
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