Adani Green Charts Breakout Post Impressive Q1 Earnings; SEBI RAs Flag Bullish Technical Signals

Adani Green Energy shares rose nearly 2% on Tuesday on a strong show in June quarter (Q1 FY26) earnings. 

Adani Group’s renewable energy company reported a 31% year-on-year (YoY) rise in consolidated net profit to ₹824 crore in Q1 FY26, driven by growth in power supply revenue, which came in at ₹3,312 crore during the quarter. EBITDA margin stood at 92.8%.

Technical Outlook

On the technical charts, India’s largest renewable energy player is showing signs of a bullish breakout, noted SEBI-registered analyst Rajneesh Sharma. The price is consolidating just below the ₹1,150 mark, a confluence of multi-touch resistance and a descending trendline.

The relative strength index (RSI) has pierced its own downtrend and is rising toward the 50-level, indicating strengthening momentum, Sharma said. With higher lows in place since late 2023 and price respecting the long-term trendline near ₹800 - ₹820, the technical setup suggests accumulation beneath a lid, often seen as a precursor to a strong uptrend.

He added that a decisive close above ₹1,150 could trigger a run toward ₹1,400 and beyond. However, a breakdown below ₹860 would invalidate the bullish structure.

According to Varunkumar Patel, the stock has been range-bound between ₹980 and ₹1,045, with key support at ₹980 and resistance near ₹1,040. Despite a volume spike following the results, RSI remains neutral around 50, indicating indecision.

A breakout above ₹1,040 on strong volume could act as a bullish trigger for near-term traders, while the downside remains protected unless ₹980 is breached, Patel added.

Fundamental Analysis

The quarter was lit up by a 45% surge in operational capacity to 15.8 GW and an industry-leading EBITDA margin of 92.8%. Power supply revenue increased by 31%, while energy sales rose by 42%.

Though revenue and profit dipped sequentially due to seasonality and a one-time impairment, the underlying operational strength remains robust.

Management aims to achieve a 50 GW capacity by FY30, with aggressive scaling at Khavda, facilitated by AI and centralized control through the Energy Network Operation Centre (ENOC). Backed by a $3.4 billion revolving facility and strong promoter support, the growth pipeline looks well-funded.

While a strong equity base and long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs) provide revenue visibility, the sustainability of cash flows remains a critical focus.

The company continues to face rising finance costs and a low interest coverage ratio, making it vulnerable to rising rates or funding pressure. Governance-related concerns, including a recent U.S. indictment of Adani group executives, could affect global funding access.

With ambitious expansion plans, the need for fresh capital could lead to equity dilution, especially as return on investments stays modest. Given its high valuation and proximity to 52-week lows, the stock remains exposed to market volatility and negative surprises.

Meanwhile, retail sentiment on Stocktwits turned 'neutral' after three months of being ‘bearish’.  Message volumes for the stock were ‘high’.

Year-to-date, the shares have slid 3.5%

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