ADP Data Shows Unexpected Decline In Private Payrolls In November, Small Businesses Pull Back Sharply

• The ADP report noted that job creation in the second half of 2025 has been flat, while pay growth has been on a downward trend.
• In particular, hiring during November was weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction, it said.
• ADP’s report comes a week before the Federal Reserve is set to decide its monetary policy direction.

U.S. companies unexpectedly cut 32,000 jobs in November amid an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

According to data released by payroll processing firm ADP, small businesses registered a sharp pullback during the month, with a net decline of 120,000 employees, while mid-sized and large businesses added 90,000 employees on a net basis.

According to a Dow Jones estimate cited by MarketWatch, analysts expected an addition of 40,000 private payrolls in November.

ADP’s report comes a week before the Federal Reserve is set to decide its monetary policy direction.

According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, there is an 89% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut next week.

Macroeconomic Concerns

The ADP report noted that job creation in the second half of 2025 has been flat, while pay growth has been on a downward trend. In particular, hiring during November was weak in manufacturing, professional and business services, information, and construction, it said.

“Hiring has been choppy of late as employers weather cautious consumers and an uncertain macroeconomic environment. And while November's slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” said Dr. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP.

The report noted that while those who remained in their current jobs experienced a 4.4% median increase in annual pay, those who made a job switch saw a 6.3% median gain.

Broad-based Decline

The firm also noted that the decline in jobs in November was broad-based, painting a contrasting picture to October, when U.S. companies added 47,000 jobs, following an upward revision from an increase of 42,000.

The Northeast and South regions of the country registered declines of 100,000 and 43,000, respectively, while the Midwest and West added 45,000 and 67,000 jobs, respectively.

Meanwhile, U.S. equities gained in Wednesday’s midday trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up by 0.22%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose 0.01%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) gained 0.57%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘bullish’ territory.

The iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (IEF) was up by 0.15% at the time of writing.

Also See: ORCL Stock Rises Pre-Market After Wells Fargo’s Bullish Call – Firm Expects It To Lead AI 'Super-Cycle'

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