Apple Q3 Earnings In Spotlight As Cupertino Struggles With Stagnant Sales Growth Amid Tariff Threat, Economic Headwinds

Apple fell marginally in Thursday’s early premarket session as Cupertino readies to release its quarterly results after the market closes.

The Fiscal.ai-compiled consensus calls for Apple to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.43, and revenue of $89.16 billion for the third quarter of the fiscal year 2025, up an estimated 3.95%.

This would mark a modest improvement from the year-ago’s $1.40 and $85.78 billion, respectively.

In early May, during the second-quarter earnings call, Apple flagged a $900 million tariff impact on its June-quarter results. It also guided to mid-single-digit year-over-year (YoY) revenue growth for the quarter.

Apple stock has underperformed the fellow mega-caps, tech stocks, and the broader market, having lost over 16% so far this year.

Data from market research firm Canalys, now an Omdia company, showed that Apple’s U.S. iPhone shipments fell 11% YoY to 13.3 million units in the June quarter, giving it a 49% share of the total market. 

Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring, however, remains optimistic that the company will deliver a “solid quarter.” In a note released last week, the analyst said the June quarter product strength, better-than-feared Services revenue and forex benefit will support upside to estimates. 

The consensus estimates for product segments, made available through Morgan Stanley, are as follows:

• iPhone: $40.01 million (45.21 million units and average selling price of $861)
• iPad: $7.21 million
• Mac: $7.26 million
• Wearables: $7.76 million
• Services: $26.80 million

That said, the analyst looked forward to clarity on the Trump tariffs, the upcoming Department of Justice (DOJ) vs. Alphabet’s Google remedy ruling and artificial intelligence (AI) strength. Woodring has an ‘Overweight’ rating and $235 price target for Apple stock.

Investors may seek clarity on Apple’s AI progress, especially as some of its key researchers left for Meta. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward Apple stock stayed ‘bearish’ (44/100) by early Thursday, and the message volume was at ‘normal’ levels.

A bearish user stated that $150 is on the table, as revenue has decreased considerably for the company.

Another user expressed concerns that investors may rotate out of Apple after huge beats by Meta and Microsoft, provided the tech giant’s earnings aren’t an “absolute” wild success.

The Koyfin-compiled consensus price target for Apple stock is $230.18, implying upside potential of over 10% from its Wednesday closing price.

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