Apple’s Foldable iPhone Could Become The ‘Birkin Of Smartphones’ In China, Analyst Says – But Others Think The Odds Are 4 To 1 Against The Company

• HSBC also expects Apple to raise iPhone prices by at least $100, citing higher memory costs and the company’s pricing power.
• Needham maintained a ‘Hold’ rating ahead of Apple’s iPhone launch event, pointing to Apple’s AI strategy and reliance on Google Gemini as key concerns.
• The event is also the first major iPhone launch under CEO John Ternus after Tim Cook’s departure last month.

Apple (AAPL) is set to unveil its first foldable iPhone Wednesday, with one longtime smartphone analyst predicting the device could become a status symbol in China despite an expected starting price of about $2,199.

Nabila Popal, a senior smartphone market researcher at IDC, expects the high price and limited positioning to strengthen the device’s appeal among luxury-focused consumers.

"Despite the high price, the foldable iPhone will be wildly successful," Popal said, according to a post from Gary Black on X. "I won't be surprised if it becomes the 'Birkin' of smartphones in China," she added, referring to the Hermès handbag known for its exclusivity, long waitlists and strong resale market.

AAPL stock edged 0.2% lower in pre-market trade and was among the top trending tickers on Stocktwits at the time of writing.  However, platform data showed retail sentiment around the iPhone maker remained in ‘bearish’ territory over the past day, alongside a more than 600% jump in message volume.

Apple Takes On Samsung In Foldables

The launch would mark Apple’s entry into a category Samsung has dominated for years. 

In a note to investors cited by TheFly, HSBC analyst Nicolas Cote-Colisson maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Apple with a $366 price target ahead of Wednesday’s event. HSBC expects Apple to introduce the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max, a new book-style foldable iPhone Ultra and an updated Apple Watch.

The foldable would put Apple directly against Samsung in the book-style foldable segment. HSBC also expects Apple to raise iPhone prices by at least $100 across the lineup, citing higher memory costs.

"Apple's brand commands high pricing power," Cote-Colisson said, adding that the company should be able to absorb some of the higher component costs without significantly affecting demand. 

Not Everyone Is Convinced

Not everyone on Wall Street is convinced the new hardware will be enough to address Apple’s broader strategic challenges. Needham analyst Laura Martin maintained a ‘Hold’ rating on Apple, saying the company has become "a relative safe haven for AI skeptics." 

She also said the odds are roughly 4 to 1 against Apple, citing concerns about the company’s strategic choices relative to peers investing more aggressively in AI.

The launch also marks new CEO John Ternus’s first major product event in the role following Tim Cook’s departure. Needham identified Apple’s reliance on Google’s Gemini for core AI functionality as the most urgent "iPhone problem" Ternus needs to address.

Read also: S&P 500 Targets Keep Rising: Barclays Joins HSBC, Tom Lee In AI-Earnings Bullish Chorus

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