ASTS Stock Extends Selloff Overnight: Analyst Thinks It's About To Buy A Rocket Company With $1B Raise

• The offering filing said that proceeds may fund launch-provider partnerships or acquisitions to vertically integrate operations.
• Analyst Tim Farrar said AST appears ready to buy or invest in a rocket company.
• Farrar said ASTS may be copying Rocket Lab’s vertically integrated business model.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) plunged 12% overnight late Wednesday after the company announced a $1 billion convertible note offering, with an analyst saying that the deal could signal plans to acquire or invest in a launch provider.

ASTS stock fell 4% on Wednesday and is down nearly 10% so far this week, putting it on track for a second consecutive weekly decline. 

Could ASTS Buy A Rocket Firm? 

Late Wednesday, AST SpaceMobile said that the remaining proceeds, after funding capped call transactions, may be used to secure additional access to orbit through “partnerships and/or acquisitions” that would further vertically integrate its business and reduce reliance on third-party launch providers. The company said it currently has no agreement for any such transaction.

Satellite communications analyst Tim Farrar said on X that the offering filing points to a potential change in AST SpaceMobile’s strategy: “The ASTS press release makes it pretty clear they now intend to buy/invest in a launch provider,” he said. “Who is trying to sell out for less than $1 billion?” He called it a “fascinating pivot” from expectations that AST would direct more capital toward spectrum. The bigger question, Farrar said, is whether any available target can meet AST’s near-term launch requirements.

“What launch provider is for sale that’s ready and able to launch 4,500kg satellites in the near term?” he asked. “So is this ‘vertical integration’ going to be an excuse for more delays?”

United Launch Alliance emerged as one possible target, but Farrar questioned whether a deal would unlock near-term capacity. “ULA don’t have spare Vulcan launches to offer, unless buying the company allows you to bump existing paying customers,” he said. “How would Amazon feel about that?” Amazon has committed about $4 billion to ULA for Project Kuiper launches, according to Farrar, and could seek a “multi-billion-dollar refund” if its slots were displaced. Other names raised included Firefly Aerospace, Relativity Space and Stoke Space. Farrar suggested a listed company could be easier to acquire using AST stock.

Analyst Sees Rocket Lab-Style ASTS Pivot 

Farrar noted AST’s reference to “the launch vehicle” in the filing, suggesting reliance on Blue Origin’s New Glenn. “Are they trying to tell us that they haven’t been able to contract more launches with SpaceX?” he asked. He also dismissed the idea that the $1 billion was simply for pricier, last-minute SpaceX launches. “I’m guessing SpaceX has told them that the manifest is full,” Farrar said. AST is targeting 45 BlueBird satellite launches in early 2027.

Farrar said AST appears to be pursuing Rocket Lab-style vertical integration across launch and satellite infrastructure. “ASTS were outbid for Iridium, so it looks like they are now trying to copy Rocket Lab’s vertical integration play,” he said.

ASTS Builds Out Satellite Network 

The launch-provider speculation comes as AST continues to build its constellation. The company said on X late Wednesday that BlueBird 10 successfully deployed its tennis-court-sized communications array in low Earth orbit, with BlueBirds 8 and 9 next. BlueBird 11 has arrived at Cape Canaveral, while BlueBirds 12 and 13 are being transported from Midland, Texas, to Florida. The satellites are expected to deliver nearly twice the peak speeds of AST’s first-gen satellites.

Separately, Bell Canada completed its first sovereign direct-to-device ground station in Quebec. Bell has successfully tested text messaging, broadband data, voice and video calls through AST’s constellation using standard smartphones.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS rose to ‘bullish’ from ‘bearish’ a day ago amid a 271% jump in 24-hour message volume.

One user said, “$ASTS seize the chance when the door is slightly open. Securing orbital launch capacity and exploring strategic acquisitions to lower their heavy reliance on third-party launch providers.”

Another user said, “$ASTS if the conversion price of the debt is $90+, and the interest rate is sub 3% like we have seen in previous issuances of convertible debt, then everyone should be buying with any dry powder they have.”

ASTS stock has risen 30% over the past year.

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