ASTS Stock Gets A Downgrade Following Blue Origin’s ‘Catastrophic’ Explosion — Why Is Wall Street Worried?

• Deutsche Bank warned that Thursday's New Glenn explosion could significantly disrupt Blue Origin's launch schedule.
• The firm noted that an incident of this magnitude is likely to cause substantial damage to the launchpad and require an extended restoration period.
• Deutsche Bank said the delay could put AST SpaceMobile's satellite rollout plans at risk.

AST SpaceMobile Inc. (ASTS) shares tumbled nearly 18% in Friday morning’s trade, with analysts expressing concerns that the “catastrophic” explosion of Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket could set back ASTS’s launch target this year.

According to TheFly, analysts at Deutsche Bank downgraded AST SpaceMobile to ‘Hold’ from ‘Buy’, while lowering the price target to $106 from $110.

ASTS’s Launch Target In Jeopardy, Says Wall Street

Deutsche Bank warned that Thursday's New Glenn explosion could significantly disrupt Blue Origin's launch schedule, noting that an incident of this magnitude is likely to cause substantial damage to the launchpad and require an extended restoration period.

The firm believes the setback could materially delay New Glenn missions, creating knock-on effects for customers that rely on the rocket for deployment.

Deutsche Bank said the delay could put AST SpaceMobile's satellite rollout plans at risk. Without access to Blue Origin's launch capacity, AST SpaceMobile may be unable to achieve its target of placing 45 satellites in orbit by the end of 2026.

As a result, the firm now expects the company's deployment timeline to slip by approximately six months.

ASTS Commercialization To Face Setback, Says Roth Capital

Analysts at Roth Capital cautioned that the explosion could delay Blue Origin's launch schedule, pushing AST SpaceMobile's commercial constellation deployment from the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2026 into the first quarter (Q1) of 2027. Despite the setback, the firm maintained its ‘Buy’ rating and $108 price target on the stock.

The analyst added that the delay could have broader implications across the direct-to-device (D2D) satellite communications market. In particular, Roth Capital expects the setback to also slow Amazon.com Inc.'s (AMZN) low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation deployment, potentially delaying the emergence of a key competitive threat to AST SpaceMobile.

ASTS’s Launch Target For 2026

AST SpaceMobile has scheduled launches of its latest BlueBird satellites throughout 2026, supporting peak speeds of 120 Mbps per coverage cell. The company has partnered with over 50 telecom companies globally.

AST SpaceMobile also stated that it has more than 3,800 patents and pending claims, and aims to reach about three billion subscribers globally through its network.

How Did Stocktwits Users React To ASTS?

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits around AST SpaceMobile trended in the ‘extremely bullish’ territory, while message volumes were at ‘high’ levels.

One user stated that they are avoiding ASTS stock as they believe the company would not be able to launch 45 satellites by the end of this year.

However, another user stated that this is a good opportunity to buy the stock and that fundamentally nothing has changed.

ASTS stock is up 51% year-to-date, while AMZN stock is up 18%. The Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) is up 63% over the past 12 months, while the Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund ETF (VTI) is up 28%.

The Vanguard Small-Cap Index Fund ETF (VB) is up 28% during this period.

Also See: Did SpaceX Lower Its IPO Valuation Target? Here's What Elon Musk Said

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