UPST Stock Edges Higher Overnight: Can Earnings Keep The Recovery Alive?

• According to data from Fiscal.ai, analysts expect the company to post $0.55 earnings per share on revenue of $352.23 million for the quarter.
• Shares of the company have edged higher for three straight sessions, with the stock price jumping more than 7% at close on Monday, the highest in over two months. 
• In July 2026, Upstart said that it had facilitated about $1.4 billion in total preliminary loan originations across 27.4 effective origination days, averaging $51.0 million per day. 

Shares of Upstart Holdings Inc. (UPST) edged 0.75% higher in the overnight session late Monday, seemingly on track to continue its three-day winning streak. 

The lending platform is slated to report its second-quarter (Q2) earnings results on Tuesday after the closing bell. Wall Street expects another quarter of topline growth; however, investors will be watching if the rising macro-driven credit risks will have any impact on the company’s outlook. 

What To Expect From Upstart’s Q2 Results?

According to data from Fiscal.ai, analysts expect the company to post $0.55 in earnings per share on revenue of $352.23 million for the quarter, implying increases of about 37% and nearly 53%, respectively, from the previous comparable quarter. 

Upstart’s July Numbers Offer An Early Read, But Macro Picture Remains Challenging

In July 2026, Upstart said that it had facilitated about $1.4 billion in total preliminary loan originations across 27.4 effective origination days, averaging $51.0 million per day. 

However, the company said that its Upstart Macro Index (UMI), which estimates how changing economic conditions affect loan defaults within its ecosystem, registered at 1.50, the highest level since January. 

The company said that a UMI of 1.50 is about 50% above what Upstart would expect in a normal economy and had increased from about 49% above normal in the prior reading. 

“UMI has remained above 1.0 since early 2022, reflecting a sustained period of elevated default risk relative to Upstart's long-run baseline, but remains below the series' peak of 1.68, reached in 2024,” the company said in a statement. 

UPST Stock: Retail Turns Less Bearish 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around UPST stock improved from ‘bearish’ to ‘neutral’ territory over the past 24 hours even as message volumes rose 333% in the same time. 

The stock jumped more than 7% at close on Monday, the highest in over two months. 

One user said, “$UPST oooh is this the earnings run up?..Could we see $35 again?..”

A bullish user commented, “$UPST The UPST Q2 report must be excellent.”

However, another user said, “$UPST This is a stock with a P/E of 70+. There is no way this goes up after earnings, unless the netincome is significantly above expectations.”

Wall Street analysts have a 12-month price target of $39.80 on the company, implying an upside of more than 35% from its last close. 

UPST stock has declined nearly 36% so far in 2026. 

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