ASTS Stock Tanks Overnight After Q1 Miss: Analyst Says Recent ‘Pumping’ Came Ahead Of Major Launch Delays

• ASTS stock fell after the company posted a wider-than-expected Q1 loss and a revenue miss.
• The company said AST SpaceMobile has enough contracted launch capacity to drive its 2026 rollout plans.
• Analyst Tim Farrar said AST SpaceMobile could end 2026 with only about 28 satellites launched under a “super optimistic” scenario.

Shares of AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) slumped 12% in overnight trading late Monday after the company posted a sharp first-quarter (Q1) earnings miss and faced renewed scrutiny over whether it can realistically execute its aggressive satellite deployment timeline.

ASTS stock jumped 10% on Monday before its earnings release, logging its second straight session in the green. 

Analyst Warns ASTS Could Miss 2026 Satellite Goal

Silicon Valley-based satcom and wireless spectrum consultant Tim Farrar said on X that AST SpaceMobile’s latest earnings call pointed to mounting manufacturing and launch execution risks.

AST SpaceMobile reported a Q1 loss of $0.66 per share, wider than Wall Street expectations for a loss of $0.2 per share. Revenue came in at $14.7 million, well below analyst estimates of $36.58 million. However, the company maintained its full-year revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million, compared with consensus estimates of $181.13 million.

“Now we see the reason for all the pumping over the last week, with significant delays to production and no more microns completed since March,” Farrar said. The analyst argued that AST SpaceMobile’s own launch assumptions do not support the company’s target of 45 satellites in orbit by the end of the year. He estimated that the company would need multiple high-frequency launches from Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket alongside several additional Falcon 9 launches to come close to that figure.

He also questioned ASTS’s use of “satellite completion” milestones rather than fully ready-for-shipment-and-launch metrics. Another point of concern was around BlueBird-6. “And zero references to BB6 even undergoing testing, let alone any results of that testing,” Farrar said, referring to AST SpaceMobile’s disclosures on the earnings call.

Farrar said that even under a “super optimistic” scenario involving two additional New Glenn launches and four Falcon 9 missions, AST SpaceMobile would likely end the year with only about 28 satellites launched, and commercial service could slip into the second half of 2027. 

ASTS Bets Big On 2027 Revenue Surge

The company’s deployment timeline remains under pressure after last month’s failed BlueBird-7 mission aboard Blue Origin’s New Glenn Mission-3 launch. BlueBird-7 separated successfully from the rocket but failed to reach orbit after a second-stage anomaly. AST SpaceMobile previously said the satellite is expected to de-orbit and that insurance is expected to cover the loss.

“An upper stage anomaly like this is not uncommon early in programs and, you know, we feel optimistic about them getting back to the pad soon,”  President Scott Wisniewski said on the call. 

AST SpaceMobile also highlighted growing government opportunities from communications and non-communications defense programs, including Golden Dome-related initiatives and Space Development Agency contracts. 

“What we are seeing in the first half of 2026 is continued progress in building out the revenue base ahead of a large jump in 2027. As I described on the last call, we see the 2027 revenue opportunity approaching $1 billion, comprised of revenue both long-term contracted or highly recurring in nature,” Wisniewski said.

Wisniewski also said that AST SpaceMobile has enough contracted launch capacity to meet its 2026 deployment goals and that the company expects “a handful” of launches from both Blue Origin and SpaceX, or equivalent providers.

ASTS Shrugs Off Amazon-Globalstar Deal

AST SpaceMobile was also asked on the earnings call about Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar and whether it changes the competitive landscape for satellite-to-phone connectivity.

CEO Abel Avellan largely downplayed the impact, saying Globalstar’s existing iPhone connectivity offering is “a SOS emergency system.” Avellan said that satellite broadband requires larger spectrum allocations. “Our focus is broadband,” he said, adding that some AST SpaceMobile partners could allocate “all the way up to 100 MHz of allocated spectrum.”

The CEO also dismissed the idea that the Amazon-Globalstar deal changes the competitive landscape in the near term. “We don’t see any real change of the landscape, at least for the next several years,” Avellan said.

He further claimed that AST SpaceMobile remains technologically ahead of rivals in direct-to-device broadband. “Nobody is nowhere close to the capability that we have technically, to deliver hundreds of megabits directly to a phone,” Avellan said during the call.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About ASTS?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment for ASTS jumped to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ levels a day ago amid a 1,329% surge in 24-hour message volumes. The stock’s retail watcher base has also increased by 5% over the past month.

One user said, “We are just starting in June now but from the call sounds like it will be regular launches going forward.  Makes sense we would be range bound in 60-120 range for 6-12 months because of that.”

Another user said, “I thought the call was good everyone was on point,  this is an overreaction imo.”

ASTS stock has surged 220% over the past year. 

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