Aurora Innovation Analyst Predicts 73% Upside For Stock, Eyeing April Rollout Of Commercial Driverless Operation: Retail Convinced Of Strong 2025

Aurora Innovation, Inc. (AUR) shares slumped 4.5% on Monday, aligning with the broader market decline. The declines came despite the “Aurora Driver” Level 4 self-driving systems provider receiving a bullish recommendation from an analyst.

Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker initiated Auroro Innovation stock with an ‘Overweight’ rating and a $12 price target, suggesting nearly 73% upside potential from current levels.

The analyst said that as trucking finally appears to be on the cusp of an autonomous future, Aurora is leading the charge with the “most sophisticated on-highway Class 8 autonomous solution among peers.”

Shanker sees the April rollout of commercial driverless operation as a key milestone for the company and the industry, unlocking a strong runway for earnings growth. 

The market is only now taking note of Aurora Innovation’s leadership, and has sent the stock up over three times in the last nine months, he added.

The analyst said, “This is just the beginning if our view of the opportunity runway ahead materializes.”

While Shanker believes the market will likely be divided among several players over time, he noted that Aurora Innovation’s leadership could give it an insurmountable lead over peers. He also feels the total addressable market is big enough to feed several healthy players over time.

Morgan Stanley estimates the company’s enterprise value to be $15 billion based on its 15-year discounted cash flow model. 

That said, the firm cautioned regarding execution risk that will likely remain until the start of the commercial production. According to Shanker, a delay in the April 2025 commercial driverless launch could significantly impact the stock price.

On Stocktwits, sentiment toward Aurora Innovation stock remains largely bullish.

A bullish watcher said the stock could push ahead with full steam in 2025.

Another user said the stock is a buy once the market stabilizes.

Aurora Innovation's stock is little changed in premarket trading following Monday’s decline. It has gained about 10% year-to-date.

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