Bharat Forge Edges Toward Breakout: SEBI Analyst Flags ₹1,400 Upside If Key Levels Hold

Bharat Forge’s stock has been on the mend, climbing steadily from recent lows and now testing a critical resistance zone around ₹1,240–₹1,260. The shares have gained 6% in the last month, driven by optimism around the defense sector in India and multiple orders and collaborations for Bharat Forge. 

Recently, Bharat Forge announced two international partnerships aimed at strengthening its defense and aerospace presence. The company signed a memorandum of understanding with UK-based Windracers to work on deploying, localising, and applying its Ultra unmanned aerial vehicle technology in India.

In a separate deal, Abu Dhabi’s MP3 International, a subsidiary of GradeOne, entered into an agreement with Kalyani Strategic Systems, Bharat Forge’s wholly owned defense arm, to supply critical artillery spare parts to the United Arab Emirates.

SEBI-registered analyst Deepak Pal said the recovery has come with higher highs and higher lows on the daily chart, pointing to a sign that buyers are starting to take control again.

What’s Driving This Momentum?

Pal said the stock has pushed above its short-term trend lines — the 20-day and 50-day exponential moving averages — and is holding steady above the 200-day average around ₹3,500, a level that has acted like a safety net for months. 

The technical signals also look encouraging. The relative strength index is sitting at 63, showing that buyers have the upper hand without the stock looking overheated. 

Meanwhile, the moving average convergence divergence indicator is on the verge of a bullish crossover, often seen as a sign that fresh upside momentum could be building. The Parabolic SAR has flipped below the price, signaling another early buy opportunity.

Key Levels To Watch

Pal said the stock has a safety cushion around ₹1,200–₹1,180, with even stronger support a little lower near ₹1,100–₹1,120. On the upside, he flagged resistance at ₹1,250–₹1,260. 

If the stock can close firmly above that band, he believes it could open the path to ₹1,300 in the near term and even ₹1,350–₹1,400 over the medium run.

What Should Traders Do?

Pal suggested that conservative traders wait for a daily close above ₹1,260–₹1,270 with strong volumes before jumping in, with targets of ₹1,300 and ₹1,350. Aggressive traders may consider starting small positions around ₹1,235, using a stop-loss in the ₹1,175–₹1,185 zone. Buying dips into ₹1,200–₹1,180 and adding if the level holds is another approach he recommended.

In the short term, Pal said the setup appears bullish, and a breakout could trigger a quick move higher. Medium term, if the stock stays above its 200-day average and keeps forming higher weekly lows, a stronger base could form. 

For the long haul, he added, the structure only turns decisively positive if Bharat Forge manages to break past the ₹1,350–₹1,400 ceiling.

Risks On The Table

As always, risks remain. A fall below ₹1,200–₹1,180 would weaken the case for further gains. Breakouts without volume confirmation are prone to failure, and any negative news for the sector or the company could quickly reverse the momentum.

What Is The Retail Mood?

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘bullish’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

Bharat Forge’s stock has declined 3% so far in 2025.

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