First-Ever Prediction Market ETF May Launch Next Week – Analyst Says Bitwise, GraniteShares May Follow RoundHill Lead

• Roundhill Investments updated its filing on Tuesday to delay the launch of prediction markets exchange-traded funds, now targeting a May 5 effective date.
• The proposed exchange-traded funds are designed to track U.S. election outcomes.
• The development signals growing institutional interest in prediction markets as investable products beyond traditional crypto and equities

Prediction market exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could launch as early as next week, after Roundhill Investments filed an updated amendment on Tuesday, setting a new effective date for the products.

The filing revised an earlier proposal submitted in February, signaling that the first batch of prediction market ETFs may soon come to market after a short delay. The funds are designed to track event-based outcomes rather than traditional financial assets. 

According to the February filing, one product was aimed at providing capital appreciation based on the outcome of the 2028 U.S. presidential election, specifically whether a Democratic candidate would win. Other funds are expected to track which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate after the mid-term elections later this year. The move marks one of the first attempts to package prediction market-style contracts into a regulated ETF structure.

Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart said on X that other filers are also likely to launch on or around the same day. “That means we should be on the lookout for Bitwise and Granite Shares to have similar filings in coming days (or hours).” he wrote.

Bitwise and GraniteShares also filed for prediction market ETFs alongside Roundhill, targeting products tied to real-world event outcomes like elections.

Prediction Markets Expand Into Crypto

The ETF push comes as prediction market platforms expand into crypto-linked products. According to a Stanford analysis by former SEC commissioner Joseph Grundfest, prediction markets are growing primarily due to financial incentives, even though they operate in a legal gray area between investment and gambling.

Speaking at the Bitcoin 2026 conference on Monday, John Wang, Head of Crypto at Kalshi, explained that digital assets have become a major part of the platform’s activity. He noted that crypto was now the second-largest category on Kalshi, with Bitcoin (BTC) accounting for about 90% of its crypto trading volume.

Kalshi was reported to be planning a move into crypto perpetual futures around Monday, signaling an expansion into one of the largest and riskiest areas of digital asset trading.

Bitcoin’s price was trading at $76,606, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around BTC to ‘neutral’ from ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter stayed at ‘normal’ levels over the past day.

Competition Builds With Trading Platforms

The expansion into crypto derivatives could position prediction market platforms as competitors to established trading firms, according to CNBC. 

If platforms like Kalshi continued to broaden their offerings, they could begin competing directly with companies such as Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD), and Kraken. The convergence of prediction markets, ETFs, and crypto derivatives shows how platforms built around event-based trading are evolving into more comprehensive financial services providers.

Another ETF by Roundhill Generative AI & Technology ETF (CHAT) was up over 1% in morning trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around CHAT remained in the ‘bullish’ zone, while ‘normal’ levels over the past day. 

Read also: DeFi Hack Shakes Crypto Confidence, But Standard Chartered Says The System ‘Is Bent Not Broken’

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