BPCL Breaks Out Above ₹324; SEBI RA Sees Upside To ₹392 On Strong Volumes, Refining Strategy

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) has broken out above a resistance zone between ₹321 and ₹324 with strong volume support, indicating rising buying interest, according to SEBI-registered analyst A & Y Market Research. 

At the time of writing, BPCL shares were trading at ₹333.55, up ₹13.45 or 4.2% on the day,

The analyst said the stock has returned 18.6% over the past three months and 67.6% over the last five years.

A retest of the ₹321–₹324 zone could offer a favourable entry point, with price targets at ₹355, ₹375, and ₹392, according to the analyst.

A stop-loss level was set at ₹313, below which the breakout thesis would be invalidated.

On valuation, the analyst noted that BPCL's trailing P/E ratio stood between 10.0 and 10.1, in line with the sector average of 10.11, while the price-to-book ratio was estimated between 1.65 and 1.71.

Additionally, A & Y Market Research said BPCL plans to shift some of its LPG imports from the Middle East to the U.S., a move expected to save around US$20–30 per ton and partially offset monthly LPG subsidy losses estimated at ₹650–700 crore. 

Russian crude imports are also being increased from 24% to about 30–32% of intake, aiming to capitalise on discounts of approximately $3 per barrel.

The analyst added that a final investment decision on a proposed 180,000–240,000 barrels per day refinery in Andhra Pradesh is likely by the end of 2025. 

Other recent developments highlighted include a joint venture with Tikitar and Shell for bitumen production, a sustainability initiative in government schools, and a senior management reshuffle effective June 1. 

While farmer protests have affected some pipeline projects, no major disruptions were reported.

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment was ‘neutral’ amid ‘normal’ message volume.

The stock has risen 13% so far in 2025.

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