BTU Stock Tumbles 10% – Here’s Why Peabody Slashed Its Production Forecast For Australian Mine

• Peabody said that output is expected to reach around 250,000 tons in Q1 and the mine is projected to produce around 3.5 million tons in 2026.
• The company maintained its full-year 2026 metallurgical coal volume guidance of 10.3 million to 11.3 million tons.
• Jefferies trimmed its price target on the stock to $43 from $44, according to The Fly.

Shares of Peabody Energy Corporation (BTU) tumbled nearly 10% on Monday after the miner cut its first-quarter 2026 coal production outlook for its Centurion Mine in Australia.

Output is expected to reach around 250,000 tons, impacted by commissioning challenges and equipment issues that were greater than anticipated, the company said in an SEC filing on Monday.

Despite the setback, Peabody maintained its full-year 2026 metallurgical coal volume guidance of 10.3 million to 11.3 million tons. The company is scheduled to report its full first-quarter results on May 5, 2026.

Jefferies Cuts Price Target On The Stock

Following the update, Jefferies trimmed its price target on the stock to $43 from $44, but reiterated a ‘Buy’ rating, according to The Fly. The brokerage also lowered its earnings estimates, citing a slower-than-expected ramp-up at the Centurion Mine, which is now expected to weigh on near-term performance.

Centurion Mine is Peabody’s flagship mine with average annual production of 4.7 million tons over a mine life exceeding 25 years. Backed by a substantial 140 million-ton resource base, the mine is projected to produce around 3.5 million tons in 2026 before ramping up to full capacity by 2028.

Its strategic proximity to key Asian markets also supports stronger pricing potential, with Peabody expecting metallurgical coal realizations to rise from roughly 70% of benchmark levels in 2025 to about 80% in 2026. Recently, the company increased Centurion’s estimated net present value to approximately $2.1 billion.

How Did Retail Traders React?

Despite the intraday slump, retail sentiment for BTU on Stocktwits turned ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ a day earlier, amid ‘high’ message volumes.

One user said the war in the Middle East, especially its impact on LNG supply, could lead to a global pivot to coal.

Year-to-date, the stock has gained 16%.

Read also: VELO Stock On Track For Fourth Straight Loss Despite New $10M Defense Order – But Retail Says Company Will Become ‘Indispensable’

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.