Chipotle Stock Braces For Worst Day In Over A Decade After Q3 Miss, Sales Outlook Cut — Retail Looks To Scoop The Dip

• Chipotle Mexican Grill now expects comparable restaurant sales to decline in the low single digits, compared with its prior forecast of about flat.
• The management cites a pullback among low- and mid-income consumers, a major base for the burrito chain.
• The company would increase prices in a “slow and measured” manner next year.

Chipotle Mexican Grill’s stock dropped 16.5% in the after-market session on Wednesday, taking it to the top five in Stocktwits' trending list, after the burrito chain lowered its full-year comparable sales forecast for a third time and missed the target for the third quarter.

Retail Sees Buying Opportunity

Notably, the retail sentiment for CMG shifted to ‘extremely bullish’ as of late Wednesday, from ‘bearish’ the previous day, according to Stocktwits data, as some users viewed the sell-off in shares as a buying opportunity.

“$CMG way overdone. Now its very undervalued,” said one user, with several forecasting a rebound. 

The stock slide is reminiscent of the decline following Chipotle’s second-quarter results in July, when it fell 13.3%. If after-market losses extend into Thursday’s session, it would mark the stock’s worst performance since July 2012. 

Young And Low-Income Consumers Pullback

Chipotle tempered its outlook, citing particular weakness among low- and middle-income consumers, who have traditionally been the Mexican food chain's biggest patrons. 

U.S. households earning less than $100,000 a year, which make up about 40% of Chipotle's sales, have pulled back sharply, company executives said on the analyst call. Customers aged 25-35 years were particularly pressured, owing to rising unemployment, resumed student loan payments, and sluggish wage growth, they said.

Chipotle also faces cost pressures, particularly surging beef prices —the company's largest commodity — due to U.S. trade tariffs. The company said it would take a "slow and measured" approach to price hikes in 2026 rather than fully offsetting cost pressures.

Weak Numbers

For 2025, the company expects comparable restaurant sales to decline in the low single digits, compared with its prior forecast of about flat. “We think it’s the right thing to do to continue to provide extraordinary value to our guests during this challenging economic backdrop,” CFO Adam Rymer said on the analyst call.

Meanwhile, it reported third-quarter comparable restaurant sales rose of 0.3%, missing analysts’ estimate of a 1.36% rise. Total revenue rose 7.5% to $3 billion, while adjusted EPS came in at $0.29, in line with the estimate.

Some Stocktwits users debated whether the company's value proposition aligns with current pricing and portion sizes, especially at a time when consumers are budget-conscious, with some expressing dissatisfaction.

“Its not that $10 bowl is unaffordable, its the feeling of getting ripped off with smaller portions,” said one user.

As of the last close, CMG stock has fallen 34% year to date.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

Read Next: OpenAI IPO Could Be The Biggest Ever, Aiming For A Whopping $1 Trillion Valuation: Report

Share

·

Add us on