Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Rise Ahead Of CPI As Traders Weigh Iran War, Oil Swings: Why ORCL, NIO, TSSI Are Trending After-Hours

• On Tuesday, the S&P 500 slipped 0.2%, the Dow fell 0.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.01%.
• Geopolitical tensions remain a key market driver as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran enters its second week.
• WTI fell nearly 12% and Brent dropped over 11% amid confusion over a reported U.S. naval tanker escort in the Strait of Hormuz.

U.S. stock futures traded higher late Tuesday as markets digested turbulence in global energy markets tied to the Iran conflict, while investors prepared for Wednesday’s consumer price index report.

As of 10 p.m. ET, Nasdaq 100 and Dow futures were up 0.4%, while S&P 500 futures were up 0.5%. 

On Stocktwits, retail sentiment toward the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) was ‘bearish’ amid ‘high’ message volume, while sentiment toward the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) was ‘neutral’ amid ‘high’ message volume, and sentiment toward the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) was ‘bullish’ amid ‘high’ message volume.

US Market Drivers

Markets remained focused on the upcoming February consumer price index report due Wednesday, with investors looking for fresh clues on inflation trends and the strength of the U.S. economy. Economists polled by Dow Jones expect headline CPI to rise 2.4% from the previous year, while the core measure, which excludes food and energy, is projected to increase 0.2% month-over-month.

Geopolitics continued to dominate market sentiment as the war involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran entered its second week, triggering major volatility across energy markets.

In the prior session, major U.S. indexes ended mixed after a volatile day of trading, with all eleven sectors in the S&P 500 ending the session in negative territory:

Stocks whipsawed throughout the day as traders reacted to sharp moves in crude oil and conflicting signals from Washington regarding the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil flows.

Oil still ended sharply lower despite major swings. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 11.94% to settle at $83.45 per barrel, while Brent crude shed 11.28% to close at $87.80.

Crude dropped after Energy Secretary Chris Wright posted on X that the U.S. Navy had escorted an oil tanker through the Strait of Hormuz, a claim that was later deleted. The White House subsequently said that no such escort had taken place, prompting oil prices and equities to bounce back from their earlier lows and highs.

Additionally, U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. will get its first new oil refinery in 50 years with investment from India’s Reliance Industries. In a post on Truth Social, Trump said America First Refining will build the facility in Brownsville, Texas, a project expected to process about 160,000 barrels of oil per day and run entirely on U.S. shale oil. 

Reports that Iran may be preparing to deploy mines in the Strait of Hormuz added to the uncertainty around the global energy supply. Trump also warned Tehran against placing mines in the waterway as tensions escalated.

The U.S. and Israel have continued their military operations against Iran, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying Tuesday would be “the most intense day of strikes inside Iran,” adding that Iran is “badly losing.”

Head of Commodity Strategy for Saxo Bank, Ole Hansen, said on X that crude prices below $85 appear increasingly difficult to justify given the scale of supply disruptions. “With energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained and regional infrastructure facing heightened security risks, the market is contending with one of the most significant supply shocks in decades.”

Trending Stocks To Watch On NYSE, Nasdaq

Oracle (ORCL): The stock jumped about 9% in after-hours trading after the company reported strong quarterly results and forecast accelerating cloud growth driven by surging demand for AI training and inferencing workloads.

Nio (NIO): The stock slipped more than 1% in extended trading after the EV maker warned rising chip and lithium costs could pressure margins, even as it outlined plans to deploy in-house AI chips for autonomous driving.

UiPath (PATH): The stock gained nearly 2% after-hours ahead of earnings due Wednesday, with Koyfin analysts expecting revenue of about $464.8 million and earnings of $0.25 per share.

AeroVironment (AVAV): The stock plunged about 10% in extended trading after reporting third-quarter revenue well below expectations and a wider loss due partly to goodwill impairment charges.

TSS (TSSI): The stock rose about 2% in extended trading ahead of results due Wednesday, with Koyfin analysts expecting revenue of around $38.9 million and a small profit per share.

How Global Markets Are Performing Today

In broader markets, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was around 4.15%, while gold traded near $5,190 an ounce. 

Asian markets opened higher, with gains in Tokyo, Hong Kong, and Australia.

Among other catalysts for the day, apart from the U.S. consumer price index report, are remarks from Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman on bank supervision and the release of the monthly U.S. federal budget.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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