Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen Agrees Trump Tariffs Aren't 'An Emergency,' Flags 'One Big Unknown' In Trade Court Ruling

A federal court decision striking down Donald Trump's tariff blitz has reignited debate over presidential power and trade policy. Flexport CEO Ryan Petersen calls it a "turning point" in U.S. trade law.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that four major tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded presidential authority. 

The duties — 25% levies on goods from countries including Canada, Mexico, and China — were initially introduced during Trump's presidency under the justification of national security.

Petersen, a prominent voice in logistics and global supply chain management, took to X (formerly Twitter) to break down the ruling's implications for importers, trade law, and U.S. economic strategy.

"The court said the president overstepped," Petersen wrote. "IEEPA gives emergency powers, not a blank check to impose tariffs unrelated to the actual emergency. Their point: A 25% tariff on Mexican avocados doesn't stop fentanyl."

Odds Of Tariff Refunds High?

Although the court ordered U.S. Customs to halt collection of the IEEPA tariffs within 10 days, the Trump administration filed an emergency appeal. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit temporarily reinstated the tariffs with a stay, keeping them in effect while the case is reviewed.

Petersen believes the legal process will last months or longer. However, he sees the odds of the government having to refund tariffs as higher than currently perceived.

"Polymarket shows the odds of the administration being forced to refund duties at just 18% right now. I'd take the over personally," he wrote. "Trade deficits might be bad, but I agree with the court that they're not an 'emergency.'"

He added that two of the three customs attorneys he spoke with think the administration will lose the case on appeal.

'One Big Unknown'

While the ruling could lead to significant changes, Peterson said, it doesn't touch all trade measures. Tariffs under Section 301 (China) and Section 232 (steel and aluminum) remain intact.

Petersen also flagged a few wildcards to watch. He said "one big unknown" was whether the ruling affects the $800 de minimis threshold on Chinese e-commerce shipments.

He also said people should monitor the administration's possible pivot to other trade tools, such as Section 122 (Balance of Payment) or 338 (Discrimination against U.S. products), or if Congress moves to codify 10% baseline tariffs into law.

"The Constitution gives Congress — not the president — the power to impose tariffs," Petersen said, pointing to Article I, Section 8. 

"This case shows how confusing our tariff system has become. It was never designed to be centrally planned by the executive branch. Importers need clarity and predictability."

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