Ford Faces Up To $1 Billion Hit After New York Aluminum Plant Fire, Analysts Reportedly Say

Evercore ISI analysts reportedly expect the fire at a New York aluminum plant will erode up to $1 billion from Ford Motor Co.’s (F) earnings.

According to a Reuters report, Ford refused to comment on Evercore’s estimates. However, it told the news agency that it has been working closely with Novelis and exploring all possible alternatives to minimize potential disruptions.

A large portion of Novelis’ Oswego, New York, aluminum plant was knocked offline until early next year after a September 16 blaze destroyed its hot mill. This section produces aluminum for vehicles. Ford, the plant’s biggest customer, relies heavily on Oswego material for the aluminum-bodied F-150, its most profitable model.

The automaker is reportedly expected to disclose the effects of the outage in its earnings report later this month. Shares of the company traded 1% lower at the time of writing.

Ford’s stock witnessed a near 178% rise in retail user message count over the past 24 hours, as of Wednesday morning. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around F stock rose from ‘neutral’ to ‘bullish’ territory over the past 24 hours, while message volume stayed at ‘high’ levels.

Novelis, a unit of India’s Hindalco Industries, produces over 350,000 metric tons of aluminum annually for automakers such as Ford, Toyota, Hyundai, Volkswagen, and Stellantis. According to Evercore analysts, while other automakers will also be affected by the fire, Ford will see the biggest hit of $500 million to $1 billion to its earnings before interest and taxes.

The F-series is Ford’s best-selling vehicle and truck. In the second quarter (Q2), the company sold 207,732 units of the truck in the U.S. In fact, the company has sold over 600,000 units of the truck year-to-date in the U.S., outpacing its nearest competitor by an estimated 170,000 units.

Ford stock is up 19% this year and approximately 13% over the past 12 months.

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