HIVE's Stock Plummets On Q4 Earnings Miss — Chairman Says Share Price Volatility Is A 'Non-Event'

• HIVE Digital missed the full year revenue, with fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA turning negative $9.0 million as Bitcoin prices fell 27% sequentially.
• Chairman Frank Holmes called HIVE's stock swings a "non-event," saying its Bitcoin leverage makes a 21% move over 10 days normal.
• A 320-megawatt AI Gigafactory in the Greater Toronto Area will anchor a path from $35 million in contracted HPC ARR today to $660 million by 2028, according to CEO Aydin Kilic.

Shares of HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) fell around 3% in early morning trade on Tuesday after Executive Chairman Frank Holmes called price swings a “non-event”.

"It's a non-event over 10 days for HIVE to go up or down," Holmes said on the earnings call, adding that a 6% daily move is similarly unremarkable given the company's Bitcoin leverage.

"HIVE is in transition to go into a hyperscaler," he said, comparing HIVE's volatility profile to CoreWeave (CRWV) and saying the swings create buying opportunities. Holmes also pointed out that after the $115 million convertible note offering, the stock broke out of its 50-day moving average and remained above it, which institutions told him was a sign that HIVE was "on a fast track for growth."

HIVE’ stock was trading at $4.6, down 3% in early morning trade. On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around HIVE improved to ‘extremely bullish’ from ‘bullish’ zone, while chatter improved from ‘extremely high’ from ‘high’ levels over the past day.

HIVE’s Earnings 

Hive reported revenue of $71.8 million for the fourth quarter, missing the analyst consensus of roughly $79.5 million by about 9.1%, as per FiscalAi. It posted an adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) of negative $9.0 million, well below analyst expectations of a positive figure, a miss of 224.6% against consensus, according to FiscalAI. Management cited a 27% sequential fall in average Bitcoin price and record global network difficulty.

For the full fiscal year, HIVE reported revenue of $297.8 million, an increase of 158% year-over-year, but still 6.7% below the analyst consensus of roughly $320 million. Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $72.9 million missed consensus by 21.1%, while EPS also came in worse than analyst forecasts, completing a triple miss across all three key metrics for the year. The company mined 2,885 Bitcoin, an increase of 104% from last year.

Bullish On AI, Despite The Miss

Holmes also pointed out that Situational Awareness CEO and former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner disclosed in a 13-F filing that he purchased HIVE at four times revenue, describing it as “the most attractive proposition” among AI data-center peers. 

CEO Aydin Kilic stressed that the $148.4 million full-year GAAP net loss was mainly non-cash depreciation and the business was still cash-flow positive. He mapped a route from $35 million of HPC ARR booked today to a $660 million goal by the end of 2028, with a 320-megawatt AI Gigafactory set for the Greater Toronto Area. 

Holmes pointed to the company’s expanding roster of strategic relationships, including with Michael Dell, the founder of Dell Technologies, who he said he’s met personally several times, and a strategic partnership with Tigo, described on the call as a platinum buyer of NVIDIA chips, to explore building an AI data center in Paraguay. "We are building very important relationships for growth, and in particular for AI," Holmes said.

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