SOC Sable Offshore Corp.

$SOC there’s a few times in our lives we get to buy into a company that has all the ingredients for a home run but is disguised as a bad egg. This company is going to destroy the S&P500 the next 5-10 years. The stars are about to align for sable. This is one of those times somebody can make generational money with much less risk than is perceived by the market

$SOC little over half their production for 2027 is capped at $87/barrel. The other half is going to fully capture oil over $100 and their breakeven is in the teens….. paytience. Wall Street hates uncertainty. This is going to be violent reversal, won’t be tomorrow or next week, but it’s coming.

$SOC 4.7 million volume today. Weak. Don’t look into these fluctuations much. Long. Many catalysts on horizon

$SOC New DPA action involving a Texas refinery On October 13, Vice President JD Vance announced that the administration would use the DPA to expand the Tyler, Texas refinery operated by Delek US Holdings. Another federal directive may be coming Reuters also reports that President Trump is expected to issue a directive in the coming days instructing federal officials to identify ways around state and local restrictions on energy development. Policy significance: Moderate to high. Immediate SOC catalyst strength: Indirect. The administration is expanding its use of the DPA rather than retreating from it despite legal challenges. For Sable, the potentially more consequential development would be a new federal directive explicitly strengthening federal authority over energy production or pipeline operations in California. That directive—not the Delek refinery announcement itself—is the next policy development worth watching closely.

$SOC Tomorrow, October 5, is the Ninth Circuit conference. The remote status conference is scheduled for 1:30 PM Pacific / 4:30 PM Eastern. The consolidated cases involve California, PHMSA and Sable, including the dispute over federal pipeline jurisdiction. This is a status conference, not the final merits decision, but it is probably the biggest immediate legal catalyst.

$SOC Brent $100 throughout 2027 equals debt free by 2028 which wipes away the collared structure which by the way the collared structure is only for like half their production, the half that isn’t collared will get huge windfall. Brent $100 throughout 2028 means roughly 1 billion free cash flow. PLEASE keep this stock at $3 and let management install a buyback program higher than the current market capitalization of the entire company. Peace headlines with Iran are laughable. I have a better chance of running into the tooth fairy. People will be praying for oil to go back to $100.

$SOC with launch of Hondo platform and MMA approval revenues perspectives should improve and also cost of debt potentially could improve.

$SOC i am buying call options 4.5$ for october 30. I believe MMA approval will send this in the 8-10$ range.

$SOC What we really need is news that they have waterborne sales available to LA refineries. That would fix so many problems immediately. They said they are pursuing it.

$SOC It’s just a matter of time—the toughest part is behind us! We’re waiting on the 9th Circuit decision and hoping for better financing terms sooner rather than later. I picked up 500 more shares at $3.60 on Friday. Wishing everyone the best! 😊

$SOC will probably go up ~30% when MMA approval for Hondo hits. Review will be done anytime in October. Just two weeks left, could hit anyday.

$SOC How low do they want to push it? At some point the market will realize we’re priced under what the rigs alone are worth, nevermind the actual booming oil sales taking place

$SOC signs of life. Increased my position by ~50% at an average cost of 3.07, feeling good about that...for now.

$SOC the dreamer side of me says we'll get an announcement on Hondo starting up post regulator approval. There has been lots of ships around especially at the connection for ships to load up on. Technically wise we're coming into a previous low that has been defended before so there are potentially lots of buyers at this level. Last chance for all the institutions to load up maybe and shake out a bit of retail.

$SOC currently has a combination of real selling/shorting pressure + hedging supply + uncertainty that is discouraging new buyers from absorbing supply. 1. Buyers still don't have proof of the steady-state business 2. There is still continuous equity supply 3. Traditional shorts are still adding 4. There's no financial penalty forcing shorts out $SOC doesn't just need shorts to stop shorting. $SOC needs new buyers to (have a reason to) become more aggressive.

$SOC when will California get its head out its ass? Probably never. they pay the highest gas prices and are sitting on a shit ton of oil. Unfortunately California is not interested in the best interest of its constituents, rather the money that comes from liberal donations.

$SOC Today SOC reached the lowest share price it’s ever been in its 5 year history. Not sure how this is warranted given the landscape. Legal theft is happening. Management really needs to step up their execution game. This is beyond ridiculous at this point.

$SOC For the Nov 9th earnings call, I’d expect commentary to be dominated by whether they're actually converting Santa Ynez productive capacity into sellable barrels, plus the remaining steps to restart Hondo. The September 28 update gave us several very specific benchmarks that management will now be expected to address. 1. October sales: probably the most important number 2. Hondo and MMA approval 3. Hondo's production potential 4. Las Flores Canyon bottleneck 5. Harmony and Heritage 6. New crude-market outlets 7. Cash flow, debt and dilution 8. Updated 2026/2027 guidance If I had to pick one number and one statement to watch for: the number is October exit sales, and the statement is the precise remaining path to Hondo first oil.

$SOC could this be the day that the Marine Minerals Administration finally does their job and approves Platform Hondo? 🙏

$SOC If you put yourselfs in shorts shoes, you want to raid the 2.88$ stop losses to get your liquidity exit on your short position. At 2.88$, shorts will be 30% in the green since the high of 4.10$. We will also get the short report on october 26 for the positions settled through october 15. As of september 30, 35% of the float was shorted with 6 days to cover. It will certainly amplified the rally on goods news.....if......we have it.