SOC Sable Offshore Corp.

$SOC there’s a few times in our lives we get to buy into a company that has all the ingredients for a home run but is disguised as a bad egg. This company is going to destroy the S&P500 the next 5-10 years. The stars are about to align for sable. This is one of those times somebody can make generational money with much less risk than is perceived by the market

$SOC What we really need is news that they have waterborne sales available to LA refineries. That would fix so many problems immediately. They said they are pursuing it.

$SOC Think the corner has been turned. Should be up from now. At last we have an operational update with a clear pathway to profit.

$SOC little over half their production for 2027 is capped at $87/barrel. The other half is going to fully capture oil over $100 and their breakeven is in the teens….. paytience. Wall Street hates uncertainty. This is going to be violent reversal, won’t be tomorrow or next week, but it’s coming.

$SOC this is a $10 stock walking around at $5. A successful Hondo restart gets us on the path there

$SOC Tomorrow, October 5, is the Ninth Circuit conference. The remote status conference is scheduled for 1:30 PM Pacific / 4:30 PM Eastern. The consolidated cases involve California, PHMSA and Sable, including the dispute over federal pipeline jurisdiction. This is a status conference, not the final merits decision, but it is probably the biggest immediate legal catalyst.

$SOC Jim alluded to Hondo needing a bit more time on the last call. He stated “Hondo needed a lot of work”. It had been out of service for over a decade anyway. So I think this is moving swimmingly and I’ll be happy to spend the next four weeks adding

$SOC The day of reckoning is coming for shorts on this stock. Oil continues to move up and finally the President has acknowledged the war is likely to continue beyond midterms. When Hondo come online, you will have a number of simultaneous catalysts for this stock: 1. Increased production obviously (10k+ barrels) 2. Improved quality of total oil as Homdo’s oil has lower sulfur content and will mix with Harmony and Heritage oil to create better total oil/less deductions per barrel. 3. Increased Cali refiner capacity as Hormuz shipments are reduced. You are going to wake up one day relatively soon a this is going to be back at $10/share.

I'll be watching for the next $SOC production update. Personally, I'm about 90%+ sure that Hondo commissioning is underway due to the following: 1. Frequent helicopter activity throughout late August and September. 2. A K-MAX heavy-lift helicopter near Hondo. 3. A dedicated offshore support vessel repeatedly running to Hondo. 4. A second high-speed utility vessel stopped directly over the Hondo platform location. 5. No public reports of startup delays. 6. SOC guidance targeting September startup.

$SOC $HTZ $SLS the cheating is amazing on these guys. 😲 I mean! 👏 Give yourselves a hand cheaters. Most of us come on here for an honest investment with understandable risk and yet the rules are in your favor.

$SOC This has so many pending catalysts that truly cannot be contained in terms of the insider information…specifically, the ramp up at Heritage/Harmony, Hondo coming online, sales bottleneck for the refineries. Way too many people know aniut this before retail gets the news. If you see a big soike for what ao’ooesrs to be know trason, you can bet ykur sweet ass some random welder on Hondo who doesnt invest at all but who has a brother in law whi does has ket the cat out of the bag.

$SOC It’s just a matter of time—the toughest part is behind us! We’re waiting on the 9th Circuit decision and hoping for better financing terms sooner rather than later. I picked up 500 more shares at $3.60 on Friday. Wishing everyone the best! 😊

$SOC Investor expectations of timelines and real world don't always match. But in the end things usually get done. Some will panick and press the button to bale out whilst others will sit and wait.

$SOC Sable is going to make 25-50 billion in free cash flow in the next 50 years with this project barring any 2015 environmental type hiccups. All that is going back to shareholders after we pay off debt. It’s selling for under 700 million market cap. California isn’t going to shut this thing down. The future has much higher oil prices in store for us than the past 12 years. We’ve been living in a fantasy land with $1.80 gas at the pump and $60 Brent oil. That world is over. We are going from cheap energy and cheap credit to expensive energy and expensive credit. California needs that offshore asset. Sable has a great moat, it’s just not recognized by Wall Street yet, which is the whole point of investing if one’s goal is to beat the S&P500 over time. This is a buy it and stick it in the sock drawer for years type investment.

$SOC let's also not forget the financial times article last month "Sable Offshore is in advanced discussions with the Venezuelan government about oil opportunities." And let's recognize that Sable has recently completed a brownfield activation using old and dated infrastructure.

$SOC Free float: ~137M Shares short: ~45.5M That is substantial. Shorts eventually gotta buy shares to close their positions. Hondo startup gets confirmed and this stock really starts moving.

$SOC Anyone in the Santa Barbara region willing to scope out activity at the Las Flores Canyon Processing Facility? Looking for new temporary equipment, increased tank utilization, active construction, Night-time lighting, flare activity, and just more vehicles throughout the facility.

$SOC Oil supply is getting tighter in the US Gulf of Mexico. As of Oct. 8, nearly 1.28 million barrels/day of offshore oil production was shut in due to Hurricane Isaias — almost 63% of the region’s output, up from 25% the day before. That could support oil prices, which may benefit $SOC. Not a direct impact on Sable’s California operations, but definitely worth watching. 👀

$SOC when will California get its head out its ass? Probably never. they pay the highest gas prices and are sitting on a shit ton of oil. Unfortunately California is not interested in the best interest of its constituents, rather the money that comes from liberal donations.

$SOC I passed up 15k in gains, looking back now. I fucked up. Still, no doubt this will reach 6-8$ within a couple months. Just boring waiting