How Long Will the US Government Shutdown Go On For? – Here’s What Bettors Are Saying

• More than 50% of those bettors think it will last more than 30 days at least.
• A partial government shutdown began Saturday after congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump's team failed to reach a deal on legislation to fund the DHS department through September. 
• Latest data from Kalshi, says that bettors are expecting the U.S. government shutdown to go on for at least 30 days. 

Bettors on Kalshi have placed bets worth $1.4 million to predict how long the government shutdown will last. At the time of writing, more than 50% chance is of that the shutdown will last more than 30 days at least. 

A partial government shutdown began Saturday after congressional Democrats and President Donald Trump's team failed to reach a deal on legislation to fund the Department of Homeland Security through September. 

DHS Affected

Unlike the record shutdown last fall that lasted 43 days, this time the closures are narrowly confined to just The Department of Homeland Security’s (DHS) umbrella. This includes Transportation Security Administration, U.S. Coast Guard, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement and U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Democrats are demanding changes to how immigration operations are conducted after fatal shootings of a couple of U.S. citizens last month. 

DHS Response

The Department of Homeland Security on Tuesday condemned Democrats’ decision and said that their decision is “once again putting politics over public safety, that have resulted in another dangerous government shutdown, undermining the department’s ability to keep Americans safe.” 

“Shutting down the DHS means cutting off resources and funding to FEMA, TSA, the Coast Guard, and thousands of federal law enforcement officers — the men and women who stand on the front lines of protecting our homeland every single day,” said Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin.

“Democrats’ reckless partisan games jeopardizing the safety and security of the American people in the name of scoring political points. By shutting down the Department of Homeland Security, 260,000 men and women who defend our homeland will lack the mission support they need to carry out our national security mission,” she added. 

Market Reaction

U.S. equities were higher in Wednesday’s trade. At the time of writing, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY), which tracks the S&P 500 index, was up by 0.83%, the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) jumped 1.34%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) rose 0.59%. Retail sentiment around the S&P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory. 
 

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