IEA Forecasts Global Oil Market Surplus Of Up To 4.09 million BPD In 2026

• OPEC+ and non-OPEC sources have contributed roughly equally to this gain, the IEA said.
• IEA expects global oil demand to rise by 770,000 bpd next year.
• Global oil demand rose by 920,000 bpd in the third quarter, primarily driven by stronger consumption in China.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Thursday that the global oil market is heading toward a major oversupply in 2026, projecting a surplus of up to 4.09 million barrels per day (bpd) as output from OPEC+ members and other producers continues to rise while demand growth weakens. The anticipated glut would constitute nearly 4% of global demand.

In its Oil Market Report for November, the IEA stated that global supply is rising faster than consumption, with output set to expand by nearly 3.1 million bpd in 2025 and 2.5 million bpd in 2026 on average, to reach 108.7 million bpd. Non-OPEC+ production is expected to account for 1.7 million bpd in 2025 and 1.2 million bpd of the growth in 2026.

Saudi Arabia Drives 2025 Oil Supply 

OPEC+ and non-OPEC sources have contributed roughly equally to this gain, with Saudi Arabia alone adding close to 1.5 million bpd this year through October.

OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and their allies, has been reportedly ramping up production since April. At the same time, higher output from countries like the United States and Brazil is deepening concerns about oversupply and putting pressure on oil prices.

Global Oil Demand To Rise In 2026

IEA expects global oil demand to rise by 770,000 bpd next year, up 70,000 bpd from last month’s estimates. The demand will be led by the U.S., China, and Nigeria, according to the agency.

Global oil demand rose by 920,000 bpd in the third quarter of 2025, primarily driven by stronger consumption in China, the report added.

On Wednesday, the IEA projected that oil demand will continue to rise until 2050, marking an extraordinary shift in tone toward fossil fuels. The Paris-based agency said that oil consumption is expected to grow by 13% by 2050, aided by weak adoption of electric vehicles without policy support.

Brent crude futures rose 0.94%, to $63.30 a barrel, after dropping 3.8% on Wednesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude increased 1.01%, to $59.08 a barrel, after a decline of 4.2% a day earlier.

Also See: Ondas Stock Soars Pre-Market After Q3 Beat, Company Raises Revenue Forecast For 2025

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