Festive sales growth could cross 10%, says Retailers Association of India CEO

India’s retail industry is bracing for a strong festive season, with growth likely to cross 10%, according to Kumar Rajagopalan, CEO of the Retailers Association of India (RAI).

“It has gone to the 8% levels, and we’d love for it to become 10% as days go by,” he told CNBC-TV18, adding that early celebrations this year could further boost demand.

Retail sales in July rose 8%, marking the third straight month of higher momentum. Rajagopalan said the value and mid-segment retailers, who were under pressure for the past two years, are finally seeing an uptick, while premium continues to perform strongly. “There is definitely an uptick. That’s good news, because for the last two years, the value segment of retail was not seeing enough consumer demand,” he noted.

The recent GST cuts have brought mixed impact for discretionary categories like garments and footwear. While products priced below ₹2,500 are cheaper, those above face a higher 18% GST, which Rajagopalan called “a bit of a dampener.” He warned that this could weigh on festive purchases in segments where prices cross the threshold.

Jewellery demand is also shifting, with consumers showing more preference for design and diamond-studded pieces over pure gold and silver due to high prices. In weddings, premium buyers are expected to continue spending, but mid-segment buyers may downsize, opting for 18–20 carat jewellery or smaller-ticket items.

Consumer durables show a mixed trend. Televisions and appliances could benefit from lower prices, but mobile phones remain costlier as GST rates have not been reduced. Beauty products may see some relief, but salons may not fully pass on GST cuts to customers. White goods demand, Rajagopalan said, is “a mixed bag” with early signs of traction only in select categories.

Despite the growth of e-commerce and quick commerce, offline retail continues to hold ground. Rajagopalan pointed out that large retailers and brands have adapted with omni-channel strategies, while many online-only players are opening physical stores. “It’s not like offline retail is shutting down, but traditional retailers are under pressure,” he said, adding that small kirana stores are most vulnerable to the shift.