JPMorgan Stock Drops After Trump’s Tariff Fallout Prompts Truist Target Cut Ahead Of Bank’s Q1 Earnings

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) shares fell more than 7% on Friday morning after Truist Securities cut its price target on the stock to $264 from $268, citing elevated recession risks and a more significant-than-expected drag on earnings from the Trump administration’s newly announced tariffs.

While Truist maintained a ‘Hold’ rating, it warned that its initial forecasts for a 2% to 4% earnings downgrade no longer hold. “We now see deeper estimate cuts likely,” the brokerage said in a note, as per TheFly. 

It cited expectations for lower interest rates, slower economic growth, and rising loan-loss provisions as key drivers of downside risk for the banking sector.

The updated outlook follows President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade actions this week, which include a 25% tariff on auto imports and a minimum 10% tariff across all other U.S. trading partners. 

Chinese goods were hit hardest, facing a new 34% levy on top of existing 20% tariffs – raising total duties to 54%. Canada and Mexico were exempt from the latest round.

China’s Finance Ministry has hit back with its decision to impose a 34% tariff starting April 10 – mirroring the rate Washington unveiled earlier this week.

The broader banking sector slumped alongside JPMorgan. Shares of Citigroup (C) tumbled more than 9%, while Goldman Sachs (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS) stocks each dropped over 6%.

JPMorgan on Thursday raised its estimate for the likelihood of a global recession to 60%, up from 40%, according to a Reuters report.

“Disruptive U.S. policies have been recognized as the biggest risk to the global outlook all year,” JPMorgan said in a client note. “The country’s trade policy has turned less business-friendly than anticipated.”

It added that the negative impact would likely be amplified by “retaliatory tariffs, a slide in U.S. business sentiment, and supply-chain disruptions.”

JPMorgan’s stock is down more than 12% in 2025 but still up by 6% over the past 12 months.

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Read also: Trump Says China ‘Played It Wrong, They Panicked’ As Tariff War Fears Escalate