McDonald's Supplier Lamb Weston Posts ‘Solid’ Q3 Beat, But Stock Tumbles On Narrowed Outlook: Wall Street Still Sees Hope

• On Wednesday, LW raised its net sales forecast for the year in the range of $6.45 billion to $6.55 billion, up from previous guidance in the range of $6.35 billion to $6.55 billion
•  BofA Securities cut LW’s price target, citing lowered multiples from shorter-term headwinds, tough restaurant traffic backdrop, and lower peer multiples re-ratings
• Retail sentiment around LW jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ one day ago, amid ‘extremely high’ message volumes

Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. (LW) drew attention from Wall Street analysts after the fries and frozen potato products maker reported third-quarter results on Wednesday, narrowing its full-year earnings guidance and sending the stock down 9%, its worst session since December 2025. Shares of the company were down 0.2% in overnight trading heading into Thursday.

Lamb Weston Q3 Earnings Snapshot

LW posted a 3% year-on-year growth in quarterly revenues, clocking $1.56 billion and beating Wall Street’s estimate of $1.48 billion. The company said it incurred a favorable foreign currency impact of $47.4 million during the quarter, and volume growth was driven by continued solid performance in LW’s North America segment.

The company reported quarterly adjusted earnings of $0.72 per diluted share, beating Wall Street’s consensus of $0.61 per share. Providing forward guidance, LW said it expects to exceed its cost reduction target of at least $250 million by the end of 2028.

LW raised its net sales forecast for the year in the range of $6.45 billion to $6.55 billion, up from previous guidance in the range of $6.35 billion to $6.55 billion. Fiscal.ai estimates 2026 revenue at $6.49 billion.

However, the company narrowed its 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook to a range of $1.08 billion to $1.14 billion, from a prior forecast of $1 billion to $1.2 billion. The midpoint of the revised range also comes in below market expectations of $1.11 billion, according to Fiscal.ai. The company added that its guidance does not factor in the potential impact of evolving trade policies or possible refunds, but does reflect expectations of continued disruption in certain Middle East markets

Analyst Says Lamb Weston Q3 Results 'Solid'

Bofa Securities said LW, a supplier to burger chain giant McDonald’s, reported a "solid" Q3 beat across sales, gross margin, and adjusted core earnings (EBITDA), but faces shorter-term headwinds, a tough restaurant traffic backdrop, and peer multiples re-rating lower amid stabilizing gross margin trends. BofA maintained a ‘neutral’ rating on LW and lowered the price target to $47 from $49, which represents a 22% gain to the stock’s last closing price.

JPMorgan said LW shares showed volatility despite a constructively received print and "better than feared" earnings. The research firm maintained a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock and said LW’s adjusted EBITDA guidance reflects a stabilizing North American market and well-understood international pressures.

How Do Retail Traders Feel About LW

On Stocktwits, sentiment around LW jumped to ‘bullish’ from ‘neutral’ one day ago, amid ‘extremely high’ message volumes. Engagement on the platform also surged: LW stock’s message volumes spiked 3300% over the last week.

One bullish user said, “$LW earnings weren’t that bad. Future looks good. Adding.”

Year-to-date, LW stock has declined 8%. 

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