40-Year Market Veteran Says Current Market Chaos Is Completely Predictable — If You Know What Day Of The Week It Is

• Newsom described equity trading as “commoditized,” with behavior now resembling short-term trading seen in futures markets.
• According to him, markets typically weaken late in the week before rebounding on optimistic geopolitical headlines tied to a ceasefire or trade discussions.
• He stated that once the pattern finally breaks, it could trigger sharp, rapid market corrections.

Darin Newsom, who has spent nearly four decades in commodity markets,  told Stocktwits the volatility gripping 2026 isn’t random. It’s following a pattern, and that pattern repeats almost every week.

“Markets aren’t acting rationally like there are rational human beings in charge of them. But within that, there is a pattern,” Newsom, a senior market analyst at Barchart who has seen oil shocks, the grain embargoes, the financial crisis, and the meme stock era, told Stocktwits in an interview with Michele Steele.

According to him, “stocks have been commoditized,” meaning that the short-term, sentiment-driven, momentum-chasing behavior that used to characterize futures markets has now migrated into equities. 

A Predictable Weekly Trading Cycle Emerges

The pattern Newsom described starts on Thursday or Friday, and dates back to 2016 when President Trump won his first term in office. Late in the week, markets slide, often dragged lower by energy prices rising on geopolitical tensions, most recently the U.S.-Iran war.

“Anything could be said at any point. That is the true definition of chaos, which is an unexpected event at a key time that creates a different result.”

– Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst, Barchart

Like clockwork, a post appears, normally on Tuesday and usually from President Trump, to uplift market sentiment. Traders have been calling it TACO Tuesday, for ‘There Are Ceasefire Overtures,’ before the next round of optimistic headlines begin to circulate and the cycle resets.

In recent context, Newsom pointed to upcoming peace talks, a ceasefire extension, or trade negotiations as examples. This causes stocks to rally, energy backs off, the Dow recovers, and by Friday’s close, the weekly candle looks healthy.

“And then immediately into the weekend, we see all of the reality of the news change,” Newsom stated. “Bombs continue to fly, missiles are going back and forth, boats are being sunk, all of these things.”

Markets Rise On Wednesday After TACO Tuesday 

U.S. equities rose in morning trade on Wednesday after Trump announced the pervious night, on a Tuesday, that he would be extending the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran, with no definite deadline in place. 

The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) was up 0.69%, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) gained 0.83%, and the Nasdaq-100 tracking Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) moved 0.86% higher. Retail sentiment around SPY on Stocktwits trend in ‘extremely bullish’ territory over the past day. 

What Happens When The Pattern Breaks?

According to Newsom, this is “the predictability of the irrational market.” The reason, he argues, is structural because the current administration treats U.S. stock indexes as a proxy for economic health. That creates a policy incentive to generate positive market headlines heading into the weekend. 

However, once the pattern breaks, it may be a bigger red flag for investors. “It’s going to lead to a lot of collapses here in the market as money rolls back and forth,” Newsom said, adding that algorithms don’t care about trends. “And when that turns, it can turn in a hurry—and it can be very violent when it does.”

He pointed to recent declines in soft commodity markets, where extended speculative positioning unwound quickly. He sees similar risks building in other areas, including livestock markets and segments where retail participation has surged.

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